Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
681
FXUS62 KMLB 221318
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
918 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.UPDATE...
An upper level trough across the eastern Gulf will lift slowly
toward FL into late this afternoon with low level SE/SSE flow to 15-
20 knots in the H9-H8 layer. A very moist airmass continues over
east central FL with PWATs ranging from 1.8-1.9 across nrn sections
to 2.0 inches across the Treasure coast. Morning showers and
isolated storms that developed during the late night and early
morning hours along the Treasure coast dumped some locally heavy
rainfall with a few 4-5 inches amounts earlier today in the Walton
and Port Saint Lucie areas. Ongoing showers across the Treasure
Coast will transition gradually inland this afternoon with
additional shower and isolated storm development across nrn sections
with daytime heating. Made some small adjustments to POPs based on
radar trends and short range guidance with rain chances in the 50-70
percent range. Expect some isolated locally heavy rainfall amounts
to 1-3 inches with showers and isolated storms that may train across
the same areas if NW to SE oriented shower bands develop into the
afternoon. Highs should be a few degrees warmer than yesterday from
the lower 80s along the coast to the mid 80s across portions of Lake
county.

&&

.AVIATION...
Higher rain chances will transition today from the KMLB-KSUA corridor
into the interior by late afternoon with plentiful deep moisture and
low level southeast flow. Other showers will develop in the KDAB-
KTIX corridor into early to mid afternoon and move inland. Locally
heavy rain producing IFR conds at times expected with the heaviest
showers and storms. MVFR CIGs expected with convection otherwise
CIGs mainly above 3 kft. Lower convective coverage is expected this
evening and overnight but GFS continues CHC for regeneration of
nocturnal onshore moving showers in the KVRB-KSUA corridor.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Boating conditions will remain unfavorable due to winds/seas
into the afternoon. The pressure gradient will support southeast
winds around 15 knots with choppy seas of 5 feet offshore, 3 to 4
feet nearshore. Scattered showers across the waters are expected
into early afternoon with isolated showers/storms possible across
the waters by late afternoon with highest coverage south of
Sebastian Inlet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  69  84  71 /  50  20  30  20
MCO  83  70  87  72 /  70  20  40  20
MLB  81  72  84  72 /  60  30  30  20
VRB  81  71  85  71 /  60  30  40  20
LEE  84  71  87  72 /  60  30  40  20
SFB  82  69  87  72 /  60  20  30  20
ORL  83  70  87  72 /  70  20  40  20
FPR  81  71  85  71 /  60  30  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Volkmer/Johnson



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.