374
FXUS62 KMLB 280806
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
406 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...High Risk for Rip Currents/Rough Surf at Area Beaches Again
Today...
...Poor to Hazardous Boating Conditions across the Local Coastal
Waters....
...Breezy, Windy, Gusty East Winds Again Today...

Current...Deep and moderately strong onshore flow continues across
ECFL and the adjacent coastal waters early this morning. ERLY
winds around 10 kts over the interior with some higher gusts, and
15-20 mph along the coast with G25-30 mph. A few light sprinkles
and showers noted on KMLB 88D across the local coastal waters. It
will be possible for a few of these to reach coastal locales ahead
of sunrise, but any amounts above a trace will remain light.
Conditions mainly dry over land. The onshore flow is aiding in
keeping temperatures mild and well into the 60s for eventual mins,
perhaps a few L70s along the Space/Treasure coasts and adjacent
barrier islands. Satellite imagery, again, shows high clouds
intruding from the west with some low-level stratocu pushing
toward the east coast.

Today-Tonight...Shortwave ridging aloft weakens across the FL
peninsula and begins to push offshore over the next 24 hours. There
will still be some mid-level impulses traversing the area, but of
little effect to our local weather. Weak surface high pressure
off of the mid Atlc coast continues to weaken slowly and slides
south to off of the Carolina coast. This will continue to keep an
ERLY wind component across the area with continued tight pressure
gradient. We will again see breezy/gusty conditions with speeds
15-20 mph and higher gusts to 25 to 30 mph at times. The gradient
is forecast to finally begin to relax this evening with speeds
diminishing to 5-10 mph over the interior and 10-15 mph along the
coast. For clouds there will be some periods, again, of stratocu
pushing onto the coast and further inland, with higher clouds
overhead streaming west to east.

Initial PWATs around an inch will gradually lower to 0.80-0.90
inches this afternoon/tonight. While most locations will remain dry,
we do advertise some sprinkles/brief light showers with PoPs below
20pct. With drier air filtering into the area from the east, our
best chances for light precip will likely be this morning and early
afternoon.

Afternoon highs in the U70s to around 80F at the immediate coast
with some L80s inland; perhaps a couple M80s well into the interior.
Overnight lows mainly in the L-M60s; perhaps some U50s for normally
cooler locations of the interior. Barrier islands may realize U60s.

Expect another HIGH risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip
currents at ALL central FL Atlc beaches today. Rough surf will also
be present. Entering the surf zone today will be strongly
discouraged!

This Week...A stagnant pattern will remain in place over the next 7
days, with very little day to day change. An upper level ridge
remains anchored over the eastern CONUS, with the surface high
pressure offshore from the Carolinas drifting only slightly seaward
by mid week. The pressure gradient will begin to relax on Monday,
but still, deep east to southeasterly flow will hold steady towards
next weekend. Will continue to carry a slight chance for showers
over the Atlantic waters each day as trapped moisture wraps around
the periphery of the high. On Monday, mentionable rain chances will
be present along the entire east central FL coastline, retreating
just to the Treasure Coast on Tuesday. No thunder is forecast, and
any showers should be very brief and quick moving. Temperatures will
climb a few degrees each day, with the low 80s at the coast and
mid/upper 80s inland on Monday approaching 90 degrees by Wed/Thu
(still cooler at the coast with the oceanic influence). Lows persist
at seasonable values in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Still mainly VFR conds, but perhaps some brief MVFR in/around any
brief very ISOLD shower activity along the coast. Drier air
poised to move into the region from the east this afternoon so
nuisance sprinkles/light shower activity should be diminishing
inland from the coast as activity of any kind moves westward.
Another day of a tight pressure gradient in place as ERLY winds
increase 15-20 kts with G25-30 kts at times. Winds do diminish a
bit thru the evening becoming 5-10 kts interior and 10-15 kts at
the coast with some continued higher gusts along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today-Tonight...Poor to Hazardous boating conditions early in the
period. Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for offshore
marine legs and near shore Treasure Coast thru 15Z/11AM this
morning as seas continue to build to 6-8 ft here. Small craft
should Exercise Caution near shore between Sebastian Inlet and
Flagler Beach for seas building to 5-6 ft here. Seas will continue
to only slowly subside into tonight. Initial ERLY winds 15-20 kts
will be slow to diminish during the day. Poor boating conditions
will continue across the Gulf Stream this evening as seas build
up to 6 feet. Isolated sprinkles/showers remain possible.

Monday-Wednesday...A relaxing pressure gradient as the surface high
pressure drifts seaward will allow for improving boating conditions
through mid week. Seas of 4-5 ft on Monday will subside to 3-4 ft
late Tuesday as east to southeast winds up to 15 knots drop to 10-15
knots through mid week. Isolated showers over the Atlantic waters
will be possible each day, but lightning is not forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Today...The pressure gradient remains tight across ECFL, again.
ERLY wind speeds 15-20 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph, especially
later this morning and afternoon. Winds do diminish this evening,
gradually, 5-10 mph interior and 10-15 mph coast (with higher
gusts here). Min aftn RH`s 40-45pct well into interior and 45-
55pct towards the coast. Dispersions remain VG-EX! Few sprinkles,
brief light showers around again this morning, early afternoon,
but any already very ISOLD trend should be diminishing further
into the afternoon as drier air moves into the area.

This Week...While breezy conditions early in the week begin to
subside, fire sensitive conditions will continue as a warming trend
commences. Minimum RH values will drop below 40% across the interior
each afternoon, most prominently across Lake and western Osceola
counties. Light passing showers will be possible on Monday, but
otherwise rain remains out of the forecast this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  64  81  65 /  20   0  10   0
MCO  81  63  86  65 /  10   0  10   0
MLB  79  66  81  67 /  20   0  20  10
VRB  81  64  83  65 /  20   0  20  10
LEE  83  63  86  65 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  81  63  85  65 /  10   0  10   0
ORL  82  64  86  66 /  10   0  10   0
FPR  80  64  83  65 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ555-570-
     572-575.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sedlock
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Sedlock