000
FXUS62 KMLB 221318
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
918 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Cold front has reached our southern counties as of sunrise,
extending from about VRB-FMY and will continue to push south of
the area by mid day. Considerable low clouds behind the front will
gradually lift higher but skies should not clear completely. Rain
chances have ended Orlando northward bust scattered showers will
affect southern sections through early afternoon. A couple of
lightning storms are possible esp south of Fort Pierce. SPC has
continued to pare back the MRGL risk of severe storms today, now
focusing primarily on Martin county and points southward. This
will be the where the best chance for heavy rain, gusty winds and
occasional lightning strikes will be. Locally heavy rain of 1 to 2
inches will be possible over portions of Martin county. Cloud
cover and scattered showers already affecting the area will limit
destabilization and the risk should end once the front passes
Martin county by early afternoon.

Windy conditions will develop this afternoon as high pressure
builds over the area. North winds will increase 20 mph gusting to
30 mph along the Volusia coast first and spread southward during
the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 916 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A weak front will continue southward across east central Florida
this morning with widespread MVFR CIGs behind the boundary in
place at DAB/SFB/MCO spreading southward to FPR/SUA. CIGs are
forecast to improve after 15Z from north to south as drier air
moves in. SCT SHRA will affect VRB-SUA terminals through 18Z or so
and isolated TSRA is possible, esp INVOF SUA. This aftn, north
winds will increase across all terminals up to 20 knots, with
gusts up to 30 knots possible. Winds will decrease overnight 5-10
knots interior terminals and holding 10-15 knots along the
coast in N/NE flow.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Current...Shower and storm development early this morning out
ahead of the weak front has generally underperformed compared to
the forecast, so went ahead and cut back PoPs across east central
Florida. The frontal boundary is roughly draped across the I-4
corridor, and will continue to progress southward this morning.
Stratus behind the front will also continue to expand southward
across the peninsula.

Today-Tonight...The weak front will continue to move southward
this morning, with CAM guidance indicating some isolated to
scattered shower development occurring across the Treasure Coast
and Okeechobee County late this morning. Have kept PoPs 40 to 50
percent across these areas. Isolated storms still cannot fully be
ruled out, but given the lack of instability present and how
things have performed so far, confidence in this remains low. If
any storms do develop this morning into the early afternoon hours,
they could be capable of producing occasional lightning strikes,
gusty winds up to 45 mph, small hail, and a brief downpour. A
Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather remains highlighted across
portions of southern St. Lucie County and a majority of Martin
County. Activity is forecast to diminish around 2 PM across east
central Florida.

The stratus behind the front will continue to expand southward
across east central Florida this morning, with the stratus likely
lifting after sunrise. Cloud coverage will then slowly diminish
this afternoon as the front pushes further southward and drier air
begins to filter in from the north. Winds will become northerly
behind the front, with wind speeds increasing up to 20 mph across
east central Florida. Gusts up to 30 mph, especially along the
coast, with be possible. At the beaches, these breezy northerly
winds will produce a strong southward-flowing longshore current,
which will pose a risk to beachgoers today in addition to the
Moderate Risk of rip currents. If heading to the beach, be sure to
swim near a lifeguard.

The drier, slightly cooler air mass behind the front will keep
temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s across a majority of the
area, with a few places across the far southern portions of the
forecast area potentially reaching the mid 80s this afternoon.
Overnight lows will also be cooler, with temperatures falling into
the mid 50s to low 60s.

Tuesday-Friday...Dry conditions will prevail through the
remainder of the work week. High pressure over the Southeast U.S.
on Tuesday will shift offshore and over the west Atlantic, with
ridge axis across or just north of central Florida through late
week. This will lead to a developing onshore flow through mid-
week, with winds out of the northeast on Tuesday and easterly on
Wednesday. A warming trend will quickly set in, with highs on
Tuesday still slightly cooler than normal in the mid to upper 70s
along the coast and upper 70s/low 80s inland, rising to more
seasonable maximum temps in the upper 70s/low 80s at the coast to
low to mid 80s inland on Wednesday. Temps continue to climb into
late week, with highs in the lows 80s along the coast to mid-upper
80s across the interior. Lows will fall into the 50s/low 60s
Tuesday night and Wednesday night across much of the area and then
will be near to above normal in the 60s Thursday night and Friday
night.

Saturday-Monday...Ridge over the west Atlantic weakens into the
weekend, with a stronger area of high pressure offshore the
Northeast U.S. continuing an onshore flow across the area through
early next week. Both the GFS/ECMWF indicate some potential for
isolated onshore moving showers as moisture increases slightly
into the weekend, but for now will maintain a dry forecast in the
extended. Temperatures will continue to remain near to above
normal, with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Today-Tonight...A weak frontal boundary will continue southward
across the local waters today, with isolated to scattered showers
possible. Isolated storms cannot be ruled out, particularly across
the adjacent Treasure Coast waters. Behind the front, increasing
northerly winds will lead to deteriorating boating conditions. Wind
speeds will increase to 15 to 25 knots late this morning, with the
wind surge expanding southward this afternoon into the overnight
hours. As a result, seas are forecast to increase to 4 to 7 feet
across the nearshore waters and 6 to 9 feet across the offshore
waters late this afternoon into the overnight hours. A Small Craft
Advisory will go into effect across the Volusia and Brevard waters
at 11 AM and will expand to include the Treasure Coast waters at 4
PM. The Small Craft Advisory will stay in effect across all legs of
the local Atlantic waters overnight.

Tuesday...Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue into
Tuesday. Northeast winds diminish to 10-15 knots, but seas linger up
to 6 to 9 feet in the morning, falling to 5 to 7 feet by late
afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will continue through
early Tuesday morning across the entire waters, and then will only
be in effect for the Gulf Stream waters through the afternoon. The
SCA will then persist for the offshore Brevard County and Treasure
Coast waters through Tuesday evening as seas continue to gradually
decrease.

Wednesday-Friday...Improving boating conditions forecast from mid to
late week. Winds continue to decrease as they veer to the east into
Wednesday, with speeds 5-10 knots. Winds remain around 5-10 knots
out of the E/SE on Thursday, and then increase to 10-15 knots into
Thursday night/Friday. Seas will range from 3 to 5 feet on
Wednesday, and then continue to decrease through late week to 2 to 3
feet into Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Today...Isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms possible
early this morning across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County.
Minimum RH values will only fall into the 40 to 50 percent range
across the interior west of I-95 and into the 55 to 65 percent range
along the coast today. Northerly winds will increase up to 20 mph
this afternoon behind a weak front, with gusts up to 30 mph
possible, especially along the coast.

Tuesday-Friday...Sensitive fire weather conditions return as drier
air behind the front lingers across the area through remainder of
the week. Onshore flow (out of the E/NE Tue/Wed and E/SE Thu/Fri)
will keep lowest Min RH values across the interior. Afternoon RH
values will drop as low as the mid-upper 30s Tuesday, upper 20s to
mid 30s Wednesday and Thursday, and low to mid 30s Friday. However,
wind speeds across the interior look to remain below 15 mph where RH
values are forecast to be critically low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  59  75  57 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  78  58  79  58 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  78  62  76  62 /  20   0   0   0
VRB  80  62  78  59 /  30  10   0   0
LEE  77  56  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  76  57  79  58 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  77  59  79  59 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  80  63  77  59 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     Tuesday for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ572.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly