Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
988 FXUS62 KMLB 250225 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 1025 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1025 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 The day closes a little warmer than yesterday, with highs increasing a few degrees to the U70-L80s, but otherwise a similarly quiet day, including the smoke from prescribed burns in a few places. The ridge axis from high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico has settled across central Florida, where it will remain for a bit. Light east- southeasterly winds down south from Stuart to Lake Okeechobee veer as you go north, becoming southerly southerly then southwesterly along and north of the I-4 corridor tonight. Given the weak pressure gradient, calm and variable winds will be possible from the overnight until the sea breeze develops and pushes inland once again Thursday. Overnight lows in the U50s inland, except the urban core of Orlando that creeps up to the L60s. While most of the coastal corridor will be in the 60s, a few lo && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 1025 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Erly winds around 10 kts this evening from the ECSB diminish to 5-10 kts and veer to S-SE tonight, before likely becoming light and VRB late tonight. Light winds continue into Thursday until the ECSB develops INVOF the coastal terminals around 15-16Z, switching winds back to E-NNE at 5-10 kts, then further increasing a bit to around 10 kts with a few gusts at 21Z. The ECSB is forecast to arrive at KMCO/KSFB/KISM around 21-22Z, and KLEE 23Z. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Tonight...Favorable boating conditions as the ridge axis of high pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico settles across central Florida. Winds 5-10 kts generally SE-SSE south of Sebastian Inlet, and SSW-SSE to the north. Seas 3-4 ft, possibly up to 5ft in the Treasure Coast segment of the Gulf Stream. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Tonight-Thursday...A surface ridge axis in place becomes stretched across the western Atlantic as a surface boundary slides southward. Moisture gradually increases Thursday with modeled PWATs near 1" in the afternoon. An east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop, with a few fair weather cumulus clouds developing ahead of and along the boundary. No precip is expected. Morning low temperatures will range in the upper 50s to low 60s, falling a few degrees cooler across rural locations. High temperatures remain near seasonal values in the low to mid 80s. A few spots across the far interior could climb into the upper 80s. Friday-Sunday... Upper level ridging across the eastern US will remain in place through the weekend. Surface high pressure across the eastern CONUS on Friday will shift eastward through the weekend, moving just offshore on Saturday night, and sliding southward through the day on Sunday as a vertically stacked low pressure system moves northward towards Nova Scotia. Locally, easterly flow will dominate with breezy conditions developing into the weekend, gusting 20 to 25 mph, perhaps up to 30 mph at the immediate coast. Dry conditions will continue over land areas through the period, with isolated showers possible in the far offshore waters of the Atlantic into this weekend. Mostly sunny skies are forecast on Friday, with partly cloudy skies developing in the weekend as moisture increases across the area. Temperatures will be in the low 80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s across the interior on Friday, with temperatures in the low 80s across the coast and low to mid 80s across the interior Saturday and Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 60s Friday and Saturday nights, and low to mid 60s on Sunday night. Monday-Tuesday... Upper level ridge across the eastern CONUS on Monday will slowly shift eastward and just offshore through early week. Surface high pressure off the Carolina coast will remain in place while slightly shifting southward. Locally, onshore flow will persist, with speeds increasing to around 12 mph each afternoon. Dry conditions will remain in place, with no mentionable rain chances through the period. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures on a slight warming trend. Afternoon highs will be in the low 80s across the coast, and low to mid 80s across the interior on Monday, and low 80s east of I-95 and mid to upper 80s west of I- 95 on Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Tonight-Thursday...Favorable and dry boating conditions will continue throughout the period. SE winds of 5-10 knots, then veering more southerly at 3-8 knots tonight. Winds become easterly at 5-10 knots across most of the forecast region by Thursday afternoon, primarily over the nearshore waters. Consistent seas of 3-4 feet during this period. Friday-Monday... High pressure ridge will dominate the local area into early next week. Onshore flow around 15 KT on Friday will become breezy overnight and increase to 15-20 KT in the nearshore waters and 20-25 KT in the offshore waters with gusts of 25-30 KT possible on Saturday. Winds will then decrease to 15-20 KT across all the waters on Sunday, and 10-15 KT on Monday. Seas of 2-3 ft on Friday will steadily increase this weekend, becoming 5-6 ft Saturday and Sunday before decreasing to 4-5 ft on Monday. While mostly dry conditions are forecast to persist, isolated light showers will be possible in the offshore waters on Saturday and Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Thursday-Friday...Relative humidity values fall to around 30 to 35 percent inland again on Thursday, recovering a bit into the upper 30s to mid 40s on Friday. Easterly winds remain light, at or below 10 mph Thursday, increasing to 10-15 mph on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 59 83 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 61 87 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 61 80 65 81 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 60 82 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 62 85 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 60 86 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 62 86 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 60 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Haley/Fehling