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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMOB 170429
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1128 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

IFR ceilings and patchy fog will develop across much of the area
overnight then improve to VFR conditions by mid morning on
Wednesday. Southeasterly winds diminish to 5 knots or less then a
southerly flow around 10 knots follows for Wednesday. /29
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/issued 1053 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/

..New NEAR TERM...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Thursday)
Issued at 1046 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Have added patchy fog into the forecast, with guidance advertising
drops in visibilities after 06z over inland areas. Winds have
become light, but density will be governed by breaks in the cloud
cover. Have went on the light side with the fog with this update,
but will need to monitor if more substantial breaks in the clouds
will allow for greater drops in visibilities. Rest on track.
/16

*************** Previous *********

Not much change from the previous forecast with mostly dry and
warm conditions prevailing through Wednesday. An upper level ridge
axis gradually slides eastward through the period and becomes
positioned out over the western Atlantic as an upper trough pushes
across the Midwestern US. This progression aloft will place the
local area within a zonal flow. Given how far removed the upper
trough is from the local area, we are not expecting anything more
than a perhaps a sprinkle or two over far interior portions of
southeastern Mississippi into interior southwestern Alabama
Wednesday afternoon. Clouds will continue to increase through the
period with mostly clouds skies expected during the day Wednesday.
Low temperatures tonight drop down into the 60s with highs on
Wednesday warming back into the lower 80s inland with upper 70s
along the immediate coastal interface. A persistent onshore flow
will result in a moderate risk of rip currents across all area
beaches through the near term. /14

SHORT/LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Upper ridging over the central Gulf of Mexico will maintain a
generally zonal flow over our forecast area and help to deflect
any weather systems north of the central Gulf coast through the
early part of the weekend. At the surface, high pressure centered
over the western Atlantic off the Florida east coast ridges back
toward the west and across the Gulf through late week as well,
with our forecast area on the northern periphery of the surface
ridge. This will maintain a mostly onshore low level flow across
our area this week, with moisture gradually increasing, but little
if any precipitation is expected through the week (although a
shower or two can`t be completely ruled out each day over our
interior zones, but too few in number to carry a PoP at this
time). With the increased low level moisture, some patchy late
night fog is possible at times this week as well, but generally
not widespread enough to include in grids either. The upper zonal
flow and weak ridging begins to weaken this weekend as a shortwave
aloft and a weak front moves into the area from the west. The
approaching front along with weaker upper ridging will allow for
increased rain chances over the weekend (30-50%), mainly on
Sunday. Rain chances end by early next week as the front moves
east of the area and drier air moves in. Warm temperatures are
expected Wednesday through Saturday with highs in the 80s and lows
in the 60s. By Sunday through Tuesday look for a slight cool
down, with highs mainly in the 60s and 70s Sunday and in the 70s
Monday and Tuesday. Sunday night and Monday night lows will be
cooler as well, mainly in the 50s. DS/12
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Mobile      65  79  66  81  67  87  65  83 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pensacola   66  77  66  79  68  83  67  82 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Destin      66  76  67  77  69  81  68  80 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   61  83  62  85  63  88  61  84 /   0   0   0   0   0  10   0  20
Waynesboro  65  83  64  84  64  88  63  82 /   0  10  10  10   0  10   0  20
Camden      62  81  63  83  64  87  62  83 /   0  10  10  10  10  10   0  20
Crestview   61  82  61  84  63  87  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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