Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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000
FXUS64 KMOB 041715
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024
...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...
.AVIATION...
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(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024
VFR conditions will prevail with a gusty west-northwest wind
today. Wind gusts up to 20 to 25 knots will be possible. Winds
relax overnight and turn northerly by tomorrow morning. BB/03-- End Changed Discussion --
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.NEAR TERM...
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(Now through Friday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Apr 4 2024
Zonal to northwesterly flow aloft will be in place through the
near term period as our region remains located in between a
longwave trough over the eastern US and an amplified ridge
building into the central US. This flow pattern will help to
continue filtering in a very dry airmass (PWATs less than a half
inch) into the area. This dry airmass, as well as subsident
effects from a surface high building over the northern Gulf, will
lead to clear skies (and therefore no rain chances) through the
entire period. Highs today will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. It
will also be quite breezy once again today due to the tight
pressure gradient in place brought on by an occluding low over the
northeast US and the developing high near the Texas coast. Winds
could gust to around 25-30 mph across the area today. As the low
lifts away and the high moves closer, the gradient will weaken and
winds will begin to relax by tonight and into Friday. Clear skies
and weak winds tonight will give way to efficient radiational
cooling, allowing for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s to
low 40s north to the mid to upper 40s along the coast. Highs on
Friday will range from the upper 60s to low 70s across our
northeastern zones, to the mid to upper 70s for our southwestern
zones. A Moderate risk of rip currents today and tonight will drop
to a Low risk on Friday.
FIRE NOTE... With minimum relative humidity values dropping into the
18-22 percent range, sustained winds around 15-20 mph, and gusts to
around 25-30 mph, we decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for our
Alabama and Florida counties from noon CDT today through 7PM CDT
this evening. Although KDBI values are below criteria, signifying
rather moist fuels in place, any fire that does manage to light will
likely spread rapidly due to the gusty winds/very high dispersions.
Therefore, burning is not advised within the Red Flag Warning area.
We will keep a very close eye on our Mississippi counties throughout
the day to see if we need to add them into the warning as well. We
held off on including them in the warning at this time due to winds
being a touch lower than that of our Alabama/Florida areas. Still,
though, use extreme caution if burning in these counties. /96-- End Changed Discussion --
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Mobile 44 76 45 76 53 76 61 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
Pensacola 49 75 51 74 56 74 62 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Destin 51 72 52 72 57 73 63 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Evergreen 40 73 40 74 45 79 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
Waynesboro 40 73 41 75 49 79 58 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 30
Camden 40 70 41 70 46 76 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
Crestview 41 74 42 76 47 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10-- End Changed Discussion --
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.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.
MS...None.
GM...None.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
$$
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