176
FXUS64 KMOB 271150
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
650 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

VFR conditions are expected to remain prevalent across our
forecast area through the period. Broken mid/upper level cloud
decks will continue to move overhead today but should gradually
scatter out by this evening. Southeasterly winds will increase to
10-20 knots with a few gusts over 25 kt across much of the region
today. /21

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 519 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 516 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A southwesterly flow pattern aloft is taking shape across our
forecast area between an upper level ridge of high pressure that is
shifting to the east of our region early this morning and also well
in advance of an upper level low pressure system over the western
CONUS. Regional IR satellite imagery shows abundant mid and upper
level cloud cover spreading over our region within the southwesterly
flow pattern aloft early this morning. Temperatures are starting off
quite mild in the lower to mid 60s over inland locations and
generally around 70 degrees along the coast.

Upper level ridging will continue to extend across the Eastern
Seaboard and New England states today, while the upper level low
pressure system slowly makes its way across the southern Rockies. A
decent MSLP gradient will set up across the north central Gulf Coast
region today between a surface ridge of high pressure along the east
coast/western Atlantic and an area of surface low pressure over the
Plains. Breezy southeasterly winds are expected across our forecast
area today with sustained wind speeds up to 15-25 mph along with a
few gusts up to 30-35 mph possible at times. A dry forecast
continues today and tonight. Highs today are once again expected to
range in the lower to mid 80s over inland areas along and north of
Interstate 10, while readings along the immediate coast should
generally range in the mid to upper 70s. Lows tonight remain mild in
the lower to mid 60s over inland communities and in the upper 60s to
lower 70s along the immediate coast and beaches.

A similar pattern continues on Sunday with upper ridging extending
along the southeastern and eastern U.S. while the upper level low
pressure system lifts into the central Plains. Southeasterly winds
will remain elevated and gusty at times across our area again on
Sunday. Some of the latest model guidance is indicating weak
isentropic ascent in the vicinity of southeast MS by Sunday
afternoon, which may result in the development of isolated showers
and possibly a thunderstorm during the afternoon hours. We have
introduced a 20% POP from west of Waynesboro down to around Wiggins.
Highs on Sunday continue to range in the lower to mid 80s inland and
in the mid to upper 70s along the coast.

Coastal hazards: The increased southeasterly winds and persistent
fetch will result in dangerous rip currents and building surf along
the Alabama and western Florida panhandle beaches today through
early next week. The risk of rip currents will be HIGH along area
beaches through the weekend and probably lasting through Tuesday
night. Surf will build to 4-6 ft today through Monday with a few
breakers up to around 7 ft possible along the western Florida
panhandle beaches on Sunday. A High Surf Advisory is in effect along
the Alabama and western Florida panhandle coast through early Monday
evening. Those visiting area beaches should be prepared to encounter
dangerous surf and rip currents. Please follow lifeguard
instructions and pay close attention to beach warning flags. /21

SHORT - LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

An upper level ridge stretching north along the East Coast
deamplifies in the coming week as a series of shortwave troughs move
through. This de-amplification of the ridge shifts a surface ridge
south over the East Coast to over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico
and northern Caribbean, keeping the northern Gulf coast under moist
southerly flow off the Gulf. A tongue of greater Gulf moisture over
the Lower Mississippi River Valley shifts east, with precipitable
h20 values rising into the 1.4"-1.6" at times over most of the
forecast area Monday into Monday night. Best combination of moisture
and decreased subsidence remains west of the forecast area Monday
into Monday night, and with that, best chance of rain is expected to
be west of the Alabama River. Rain chances shift east for late
Monday night into Tuesday as the tongue of moisture shifts east. For
the first passing shortwave Sunday night into Monday night, guidance
indicates enough instability to add rumbles into the forecast, with
SBCapes rising into the 750-1000J/kg. Wind shear remains limited
with the shifting of the surface ridge helping to keep wind shear
low, so am expecting the chance of organized strong to severe storms
to be low. With the second, a weaker shortwave trough passes late
Monday night into Tuesday night. The band of increased moisture
shifts more over the Southeast, spreading scattered showers and
thunderstorms more eastward over the forecast area. Instability
remains modest (SBCapes of 1000-1500J/kg) with wind shear remaining
minimal, so am expecting the chance of any strong to marginally
severe storms to remain low. Through the rest of the forecast, an
upper ridge builds a bit over the Southeast, with the surface high
off the East Coast shifting north and the best moisture influx
shifts west of the forecast area, rain chances drop for the rest of
the week.

Temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal norms, with
subsidence from the eastern upper ridge remaining strong enough over
the Southeast. High temperatures in the mid to at times upper 80s
are expected over inland areas, around 80 along the coast. Low
temperatures are expected to range from around 60 over central
Alabama to mid to upper 60s over portions of inland southeast
Mississippi and along the coast.
/16

MARINE...
Issued at 516 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for much of the marine area
through late Sunday night as southeasterly winds range between 15-25
kt with gusts up to around 30 kt. Seas also build to 5-8 ft over the
Gulf marine zones this weekend. /21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      82  66  81  66  82  66  82  65 /   0   0   0   0  20  20  30   0
Pensacola   78  69  77  68  79  67  81  67 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  20   0
Destin      78  69  78  68  78  67  80  68 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  10   0
Evergreen   84  62  83  59  85  62  85  61 /   0   0   0   0  10  20  30   0
Waynesboro  84  62  83  63  84  63  84  64 /   0   0  10   0  40  50  40  10
Camden      83  62  82  60  84  62  84  62 /   0   0   0   0  20  30  30   0
Crestview   83  63  84  59  84  59  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0  10  20   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Monday
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Monday
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ630>634-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

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