Text Products for AFD Issued by MOB

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
000
FXUS64 KMOB 091721
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1221 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

...New AVIATION, NEAR TERM...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

A well established southeast flow is in place between high
pressure to the east and low pressure taking shape over TX.
Occasional higher gusts throughout the afternoon 20 to 25 kts.
Lowest cig heights at MVFR levels. Vsby ok. Going into the day
Wednesday, cigs lower to IFR categories with chances of shra/tsra
increasing from west to east. Appears greatest risk of impacts
from strong to perhaps severe convection will be after 10.18Z. /10


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Latest water vapor imagery shows the forecast area under weak upper
ridging, with a closed low moving into the TX/OK Panhandles and a
closed low over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Southerly flow
continues to filter in an abundance of moisture, while several
shortwaves were moving through the southwest flow aloft. This has
led to widespread showers across much of the southeast, though most
of this activity has lifted north of the area. As we head into the
predawn hours, not expecting much in the way of more showers, with
dry conditions likely for the area. Temps will be on the mild side,
given extensive cloud cover, with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

The upper ridge will strengthen a bit through the day as the
southern stream low digs into the Southern Plains. With the moisture
continuing to stream into the area, and weak waves ejecting from the
low to our west, isolated to scattered showers are possible over our
northern zones. That said, the influence of the strengthening ridge
should limit the coverage of showers today. The height rises and
southerly flow will help us warm up a bit today, despite the
lingering cloud cover, and highs will warm into the upper 70s for
much of the area. Not expecting much change in the sensible weather
pattern overnight, with clouds persisting and overnight lows falling
into the 60s. /73



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      66  75  60  72  49  76  49  80 /   0 100  90   0   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   66  75  64  72  54  75  52  77 /   0  90 100  10   0   0   0   0
Destin      66  75  65  74  57  74  55  75 /   0  70 100  20   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   59  78  60  72  46  75  45  82 /  10  90 100  10   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  63  74  56  70  46  74  46  81 /  10 100  70   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      60  76  58  68  47  73  45  80 /  10  90  90  10   0   0   0   0
Crestview   60  78  61  76  48  76  45  81 /   0  80 100  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 1 AM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Warning until 1 AM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT
     Wednesday for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for
     GMZ630>636.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 1 PM CDT Thursday for
     GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for
     GMZ650-655-670-675.

     Gale Warning from 4 PM Wednesday to 7 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
National Weather Service National Headquarters
