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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS63 KMPX 201139
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
639 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Final push of snow showers moving through this morning. Little
  to no accumulation expected.

- Quiet weather through the weekend, with a couple of systems to
  move across the area at the start and end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

The brief return of winter excitement is starting to wane off this
morning, as the returns on radar have become fewer and fewer across
the area. We had a brief, heavy snow shower around 1:30AM at MPX
that was able to start accumulating, but it couldn`t quite break a
tenth given the wind and the fact that it only lasted for 5-10
minutes. The area that has had the best shot of seeing measurable
snow is along a line just north of I-94 between St. Cloud and Maple
Grove. This particular snow shower has led to visibilities as low as
2 miles for up to 30 minutes in some locations. Any other night
dwellers out there will see this shower gingerly slice through
the Twin Cities metro over the next hour or so.

Daytime temperatures will look to recover today as the upper-level
trough pushes further east, carrying the coldest mass of air along
with it. Nighttime temperatures will still likely drop near or below
freezing for most, leading to the third night in a row of potential
impact for susceptible vegetation.

Some good news, this evening we will see a weakening of our
persistent westerly winds, as well as clouds clearing from the
northwest to southeast. With the help of 850hPa WAA, temperatures
will have good chance at reaching the 60s for most on Sunday. As
temperatures warm, RH values will bottom out in the low-mid 20s,
elevating fire weather concerns. On the flip side, the lack of
strong wind gusts should help mitigate any concerns. It will be
something to keep an eye on through the weekend though.

A return to an active pattern is still on tap as we head into next
week. A relatively weak Clipper system will roll down from
Saskatchewan into the Upper Midwest Monday into Tuesday. Much of
Minnesota and Wisconsin will remain in the warm sector, keeping any
precipitation as rain. QPF will be light, with the highest totals
likely being only a few tenths at most. A strengthening Colorado Low
will look to steal the show by the end of the week. Both moisture
and convective potential look promising, and the specifics of this
system will certainly bear watching throughout the upcoming
days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Snow showers have generally ended at initialization time so have
no mention of such throughout this TAF period. However, ceilings
are likely to reach MVFR levels for much of this morning as a
weak disturbance aloft drifts through the region. High pressure
will follow late this afternoon through this evening, at which
time skies will clear out, leading to only very little passing
high cirrus overnight through Sunday morning. Breezy NW winds
will persist through this afternoon, with sustained speeds
around 15kts and gusts around 25kts. Speeds drop under 10kts
this evening through the overnight hours.

KMSP...VFR ceilings to start but will likely drop into MVFR
range shortly after initialization and remain near/over MSP
through late morning. Ceilings will then remain in place through
the rest of the day, not breaking out until this evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15kts.
MON...Chc MVFR/-SHRA in aftn. Wind SW 15-20G25-35kts.
TUE...Chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind N 15G20-30kts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Anoka-Blue
     Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-
     Goodhue-Hennepin-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-
     Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright-Yellow
     Medicine.
WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for Chippewa-Dunn-
     Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...JPC