-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
806
FXUS63 KMPX 150558
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1258 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Most locations should see 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain as an
  area of showers and thunderstorms moves from west to east
  across the region Wednesday into Thursday. The risk for severe
  weather is low.

- Thursday and Friday should by dry for most locations.

- Small chances for showers and thunderstorms return this
  weekend and into next week, but there is a lot of uncertainty
  due to the lack of a strong signal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Confidence continues to increase that most
locations will see measurable rainfall as showers and thunderstorms
move across the region Wednesday into early Thursday. Rain will move
in across southwest Minnesota on Wednesday morning, but be slow to
progress eastward. Most location in central/eastern MN and western WI
will not see any rain until the evening. The lack of instability and
deep layer wind shear means the risk for severe weather is low.
However, there is a surface low that will track across central
Minnesota, with southeast winds and a narrow area of MLCAPE expected
to develop in the small warm sector. Forecast soundings do show
veering winds with height in the lower levels of the atmosphere. If,
and it`s a big if, the instability ends up being on the higher end
of the forecast guidance, then there could be a non-zero threat for
a brief tornado. A quick HREF comparison of the MLCAPE and 0-1km SRH
from May 06 2023, which produced a few tornadoes in southwest MN,
shows less instability and shear for tomorrow than was forecast on
that day. This reinforces that the risk for severe weather is low,
and the general thunder across the region on the SPC Day2 outlook is
the most likely scenario. This system will lift off to the
northeast, and that should lead to a dry day for Thursday. There are
still small chances for showers or thunderstorms, but most locations
should remain dry.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...There is high uncertainty for this
weekend and beyond. An upper level shortwave trough will move across
the International Border late Friday into Saturday. Warm air will
lift northward ahead of this feature, and highs on Friday and
Saturday will reach the 80s at most locations. This system is
trending a bit more amplified, which means better forcing for
precipitation to the south ahead of a cold front that will move
across Minnesota and Wisconsin. Ensemble guidance shows GEFS
clustering with a deeper trough, while the EC ensemble is less
amplified. Rain chances are higher to the north for Friday and
Saturday, and the overall risk for severe weather is low.

Looking ahead to next week, the cold front will move south, but then
become stalled across the Corn Belt. This front will become another
focus for showers and thunderstorms as it moves northward as a warm
front. Where this front stalls out, and where it becomes active is
still uncertain as the shortwaves driving this are low
predictability. There is some indication that the zonal flow of the
northern stream that we have been experiencing will phase with the
southern stream as a longwave trough digs out across the western
CONUS. This could transition us back into a more active weather
pattern for the end of May.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

We`re just waiting around this period for showers to finally
kick east out of the Dakotas. Followed HREF for timing of
showers in. With a weak surface low coming across southern MN
Wednesday night, the best precip coverage will be north of that
feature, which will impact AXN and may STC. For all other MPX
terminals, including MSP. There will be a 3-6 hour window where
showers will be possible as a north to south oriented band of
forcing and moisture slide east Wednesday evening. CIGs will
remain mostly VFR, but MVFR or lower cigs will be most likely to
the north of the low (so again AXN) and once winds switch to the
west behind the front. At this point, was most aggressive with
low cigs at AXN and was a bit more optimistic at the rest of
the terminals.

KMSP...Looking at the HREF, shra chance will be greatest between
2z and 8z. After 9z is when the MVFR cig threat arrives. Thunder
chance is non-zero, but is not high enough to warrant a prob30
mention at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind W 10-15kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Winds S bcmg W 15-20G30 kts.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...MPG