339
FXUS63 KMPX 121139
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
639 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Excessive Heat Warning in effect for the Twin Cities metro
  today through Tuesday evening. A Heat Advisory has been
  extended through Tuesday evening.

- Daily high temperatures in the 90s along with max heat index
  values near 100 degrees today through at least Tuesday.

- Little chance for precipitation this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Definitely feels warm and muggy out there early this morning.
The 3 AM temperature here at NWS Twin Cities read 73 degrees
which wont fall much lower than that for the next couple of
days. This is the case for much of central and southern MN, and
western WI. Had to nudge our current overnight lows up a couple
degrees given our very warm surface conditions. The forecast
remains bleak in terms of cooler and comfortable weather this
week. Upper-level ridging today will continue to deepen and push
farther northeastward into the northern plains. By Monday and
Tuesday an anomalous 600 dm upper- level high becomes maximized
across southern MN. The ridging pattern will then become
elongated over much of the CONUS which then traps hot and dry
conditions across our neck of the woods. Ultimately, today is
the start of a multi-day heatwave.

Highs today and tomorrow are forecast to reach the low to
mid-90s and then perhaps a bit warmer on Tuesday as the heat
peaks. Surface temperatures alone are not expected to reach 100
degrees but when one combines the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (in
the mid-80s), surface temps, and dew points results in heat
index values to reach near 100 degrees. Unfortunately, not much
relief is expected the next few nights as warm lows are forecast
to only fall to the mid- 70s. Current NBM guidance felt more
optimistic in terms with overnight lows to be a bit cooler
however combining EPS and GEFS solutions ended up trending lows
into the low to mid-70s. Therefore, it was decided to upgrade
our current Heat Advisory to an Excessive Heat Warning for the
Twin Cities metro (Anoka, Ramsey, Washington, Dakota, Hennepin,
Scott, and Carver) counties through Tuesday evening. The
existing Heat Advisory was also extending through Tuesday
evening while expanding one row of counties south that now
includes Watonwan, Blue Earth, Le Sueur, Rice, and Goodhue.

As for precipitation, the forecast remains dry. The strong
previously mentioned ridging pattern wont let up its grasp until
the second half of this week. A mid-level wave looks to try
produce some rain/storms for NE`rn MN and Wisconsin but even
then ensemble membership is not getting too excited about
widespread rainfall. Thus, agree with NBM advertising 30-40%
PoPs east of the I-35 corridor Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Solid VFR conditions with clear skies expected through this TAF
period. South winds at initialization will become more southwest
later this morning with a few gusts possible during the
afternoon.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SW around 10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts becoming S 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Chisago-Douglas-Goodhue-
     Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-McLeod-
     Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville-
     Rice-Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan-
     Wright-Yellow Medicine.
     Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT
     Tuesday for Anoka-Carver-Dakota-Hennepin-Ramsey-Scott-
     Washington.
WI...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for
     Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-
     St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy
AVIATION...JPC