National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KMQT 232342
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
742 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation ending this evening across Upper Michigan.

- Windy this evening especially central Upper but winds will subside
later tonight.

- Chilly Wednesday and warming Thursday.

- More unsettled weather expected for the coming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 411 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Progressive pattern across North America
to start this forecast period.  Short wave trough digging southeast
across the upper Midwest is our initial feature of concern spreading
height falls across the Great Lakes...with a split trough off the
west coast.  Lead PV anomaly associated with upper Midwest short
wave trough crossed Upper Michigan earlier today with a second piece
of energy over Wisconsin.  Low level thermal ridge extends from
southern Kansas into Lower Michigan...with colder air spilling south
across Manitoba/northern Ontario and the Dakotas/Minnesota.  18z
surface analysis shows a weakening surface low/frontal wave along
the east shore of Lake Superior...along a cold front that has mostly
dropped south through the Upper Peninsula.  Scattered showers/
thunderstorms developed ahead of the front now mostly over the
eastern half of the peninsula.  A thinning area of snow crossing
northern Lake Superior was approaching the Keweenaw Peninsula as
temperatures have been dropping behind the front along with gusty
northerly winds.

Upper Midwest short wave trough will move east of the region tonight
along with its associated cold front...as high pressure builds into
northern Ontario along with rising heights in the wake of the upper
level wave.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Precipitation ending this evening across Upper Michigan:  Short wave
trough passage is expected to bring precipitation to an end this
evening as drier air advects into Upper Michigan (lingering early
showers to the south/east...and perhaps some leftover light
snow/flurries along the north shore).  Cold advection will bring
some instability over Lake Superior with 925mb temperatures falling
toward -10C with a lake temperature in the 3-4C range...but skies
are clearing quickly over northwest Ontario with surface dew points
in the teens advecting toward the lake.  So may not be enough
moisture to generate much cloud cover overnight.

Windy this evening especially central Upper but winds will subside
later tonight: Tight pressure gradient behind the front will keep
winds brisk into this evening especially across central/eastern
Upper where the gradient hangs on the longest. Late afternoon/
evening gusts 25 to 35 mph expected (stronger east)...winds should
decouple overnight over western Upper with clearing skies and a
weakening gradient while gust magnitude will decrease across the
eastern half of the U.P.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 411 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Pattern Forecast: High pressure will take up residence across the
Great Lakes through Thursday along with short wave ridging building
into central North America.  Southern portion of the split trough
off the west coast will move into the central/southern Plains by
Friday...spinning up a lee side low over Colorado/Kansas that will
eventually lift northeast into the Great Lakes Saturday.  This cycle
looks to repeat for the latter half of the weekend with another
southern branch system that may impact the state for early next
week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Chilly Wednesday with moderating temperatures Thursday: Coldest air
will be over Michigan on Wednesday which will keep temperatures on
the cooler side of normal (which is right around 50 degrees).
Temperatures will the coolest along the Lake Superior shoreline with
an onshore wind with highs likely only in the upper 30s-mid
40s...warmest temperatures over southwest Upper with highs a couple
degrees either side of 50.  Temperatures are expected to rebound
Thursday as wind shift to the souther with highs from the mid 50s
east to lower 60s west.

More unsettled weather expected for the coming weekend: Stronger
push of warm air ahead of a northeast propagating surface low
tracking from the central Plains and into the Midwest Friday will
begin to increase rain chances from the southwest...especially
during the afternoon though there is a decent chance that most of
Friday will be dry.  Once the threat for rain moves in it`s not
likely to end into early next week though there may be break in the
precipitation on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 742 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

MVFR conditions to prevail through Wed 03Z at IWD and SAW, then
improving to VFR as a low pressure system departs Upper Michigan.
Meanwhile, CMX has already returned to VFR levels and precip has
ended.  TAF sites will then remain at VFR through the end of the TAF
period.  Also, strong northeasterly winds will persist at CMX and
SAW into tonight with gusts up to 33 kts at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 411 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Post-cold front pressure gradient expected to keep winds ramped up
into the evening...but gale force wind gusts over central/eastern
Lake Superior are expected to subside tonight as high pressure
builds in from the north.  This high then lingers over the Great
Lakes through Thursday which will keep winds suppressed until Friday
when winds will increase from the southeast/east and may push gale
force gusts.  Low pressure then forecast to track northeast across
the region this weekend...which in turn will bring winds back around
from the north in the Sunday time frame.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday for
     LSZ240>242.

  Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ243>245-249-
     250-264-266.

  Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for LSZ243>245.

  Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ246-247.

  Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ248-249.

  Small Craft Advisory from noon to 1 PM EDT Wednesday for
     LSZ250.

  Gale Warning until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ251-267.

  Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM EDT
     Wednesday for LSZ251.

Lake Michigan...
  Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...GS/TDUD
MARINE...07