Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 231437 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1037 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018 .DISCUSSION...
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Surface and upper air observations show the stacked area of low pressure is currently centered over NW TN and is expected to move very slowly eastward over the next 24-48 hours. The main rain shield and area of strong synoptic lift is currently located over SW VA and NE TN and continues to move northeastward away from the forecast area over the next few hours with generally decreasing PoPs. However, WV imagery continues to show multiple vort maxima rotating around the upper-level low with one of these currently moving ENE over NE MS and NW AL. This vort max, along with height falls as the upper-level low moves slowly toward our area, will allow scattered convection to initiate this afternoon, especially across the southern and central portions of our area. Instability is low, but model consensus shows about 200-500 J/kg of MUCAPE this afternoon across the southern third of our forecast area which will provide a slight chance/chance for some general thunderstorms. Lowest PoPs this afternoon should be across NE TN as downsloping continues to strengthen and highest 850mb winds shifts northeastward into that area. Also, made some minor adjustment to temps, dewpoints, and cloud cover based on current observations and trends.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 54 70 54 / 60 60 60 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 54 67 53 / 70 80 70 30 Oak Ridge, TN 65 54 68 52 / 80 80 70 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 65 52 67 50 / 60 70 70 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for Jefferson-NW Blount- North Sevier-Northwest Carter-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Sullivan-Washington TN. High Wind Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for Russell-Washington. && $$ JB

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