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000
FXUS64 KMRX 150513
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
113 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

This evening, temperatures have been warmer than expected, and dew
points have remained lower than expected. This has been due to
both the strong mixing during the day, some cloud cover, and
remaining winds. As such, temperatures were raised slightly, and
dew points were lowered slightly for the overnight period.
Overall, this is a minimal change with remaining elements updated
based on the latest high-res guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Key Messages:

1. Warm temperatures continue through tonight and tomorrow.

2. Chance of thunderstorms in northern sections Monday afternoon.

Discussion:

Gusty SW winds have developed this afternoon in many spots with a
well mixed boundary layer bringing winds aloft to the surface. With
sunset and stabilization, we should see winds drop off. Winds may
remain a bit strong in the mountains as winds at the 850 mb level
will be around 30-40 kt, but not likely widespread enough for an
Advisory.

A front will be stalled north of the area, across northern
KY/central WV. Models are trending toward showing convective
activity along this front, notably in the HRRR and the ARW, with a
SE movement into SW VA. The NAM is an outlier and shows nothing
developing, likely due to a very strong capping inversion in is
forecast soundings. Will follow the consensus and have slight to low
chance PoPs in SW VA and NE TN tomorrow afternoon. Warm temperatures
will continue again tomorrow with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s
with a SW low level flow and nearly full sun.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Key Messages:

1. Chance of showers and storms Monday night into Tuesday.

2. Increasing rain chances with showers and thunderstorms Wednesday.
A break in the rain now Thursday. Rain chances and more storms
Friday and Friday night.

3. Turning cooler Saturday and Sunday behind front. Lingering rain
chances for the weekend.

Discussion:

On Monday night a weak surface front tries to slip southwestward
from the central Appalchians. But may not quite make it. Just south
of the front expect increasing clouds and some isolated showers and
storms Monday night into Tuesday southwest Virginia and northeast
Tennessee. Then late Tuesday or Tuesday night the front to the north
will shift north again as ridging strengthens temporarily. A
deepening low pressure over the plains and associated cold front
will be pushing eastward building the ridge Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning. This system will spread more clouds and showers
into the western sections late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
As instability increases expect thunderstorms to develop by
afternoon. Some stronger storms are possible just west of the area
Wednesday.

The front will push through Wednesday night but still expect another
front to develop behind it. This may allow the southeast ridging to
restrengthen with little chance of rain Thursday. Then the 2nd front
arrives Friday and Friday night moving slower than the first one.
There could be some strong to severe storms Friday. A prolonged
chance of showers and a chance of storms will keep the weekend
unsettled and become cooler both Saturday and Sunday. Trends now
keep lows above 50 Saturday and 40 Sunday mornings with the clouds
and lingering rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions will continue this TAF cycle. Low level wind shear
persists with southwesterly winds of 35 to 40 knots around 2K ft.
LLWS will diminish around sunrise as the 850mb jet dissipates.
This afternoon, southwesterly winds will not be as strong as
yesterday but gusts up to 18 knots will be possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             85  59  82  64 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  59  82  65 /  10   0   0  10
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  58  82  64 /  10  10   0  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  57  80  60 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DGS
LONG TERM....TD
AVIATION...McD