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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMRX 250737
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
337 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Key Messages:

1. Cool start to the morning, becoming seasonable this afternoon.

2. Increasing clouds late afternoon/evening, with a slight chance of
light rain across southern areas early Friday morning.

Discussion:

High pressure and associated subsidence has lead to mostly clear
skies as noted by surface observations and satellite trends. Strong
radiational cooling has already started to occur, and most places
will fall into the 40s, with a handful of locations potentially
dipping into the upper 30s. Surface dewpoint depressions are highly
varied across the area, ranging from 0 to nearly 10 in some
locations. Very patchy fog still remains a possibility this morning,
otherwise, just a bit chilly for the morning commute.

Upper level heights see minor increases as ridging slowly shifts
eastward atop the region Thursday into Thursday night. Near to
slightly above normal afternoon temperatures are expected as a
result. The light northerly flow and favorable mixing will result in
low afternoon RHs. Given light nature of the winds and recent
rainfall, expect no fire weather concerns. Lastly, cyclogenesis
will take place across central CONUS as a cold front expands from
the midwest into Texas. A warm front and southerly H85 flow across
the southeast CONUS will result in a slight chance of rain
showers early Friday. This is further expanded on in the long term
section below. Overall, a quiet and comfortable near term with
some increasing clouds late Thursday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 332 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Key Messages:

1. Low rain chances Friday as a warm front moves through the region.

2. Breezy southwesterly winds Friday through Saturday. Otherwise,
dry and warm conditions forecast over the weekend.

3. A chance of showers and thunderstorms return early next week.

Discussion:

A warm front is still set to lift through the area on Friday.
Isentropic lift will give us slight chance POPs through the day. Any
rain that falls will be light and only a few hundredths of an inch,
which is typical during these types of setups. Models still show the
850mb jet increasing to 30 to 40kts behind the warm front. Winds
across the southern TN valley will become breezy by Friday afternoon
as deep mixing occurs behind the front. Winds will become gusty
across the east TN mountains late Friday afternoon into Friday
night. It still looks like the highest elevations will see low-end
Wind Advisory level winds with gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Though most
locations will see sub advisory level winds. Then, ridging
strengthens across the area over the weekend. Dry on Saturday but
breezy areawide due to deep mixing during the afternoon. Most
locations will see wind gusts up to 20 mph, with isolated gusts up
to 30 mph. Dry and warmer on Sunday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above
normal and plenty of sunshine.

A cold front is still set arrive Monday night into Tuesday and will
give us our next chance of showers and storms. No threat of severe
weather as of now as the low will be across Canada as the cold front
moves through our area. Unsettled weather remains in place through
the end of the long term as we will be in a zonal flow pattern with
high pressure to our south and a broad longwave trough to our north.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Only adjustment from previous TAF was to throw mention of fog in a
tempo group given low confidence. TRI still seems to be primary
site for concern of reduced visibility through the morning. Recent
sfc obs suggest dewpoints in the upper 30s to lower 40s creeping
into SW VA and NE TN. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected with
light winds. Some high clouds will advect into the region for the
latter half of the cycle.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Chattanooga Airport, TN             78  56  79  63 /   0  20  20   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  74  52  75  61 /   0  10  20   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       76  52  75  61 /   0  10  20   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              70  47  71  55 /   0  10  20  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...KRS