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000
FXUS64 KMRX 111943
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
343 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Key Messages:

1. Showers and thunderstorms, potentially strong to severe, will
continue for the next few hours this afternoon and early evening.
The primary threat is damaging winds with the secondary threat
being tornadoes.

2. Showery regime will remain mostly north of I-40 and along
higher terrain tomorrow with cooler temperatures. Small hail is
possible with the showers. Winds will remain elevated into
tomorrow as well.

Discussion:

Some strong storms are making their way into the area this
afternoon. Severe storms are still possible. The primary threat is
damaging winds and the secondary threat being a low chance for
tornadoes. Small hail may accompany the storms as well. As we get
closer to 00Z and especially afterward, the threat for
thunderstorms decreases as they move out of the area into the
Virginia`s. After 00Z, flow expected to switch to the west and
northwest which will continue to support moisture ringing along NW
upslope prone areas and NE TN and SW VA into tomorrow. A shortwave
impulse moving overhead will aid lift. Although not cold, low
levels will be cooler which may support small hail with any shower
tomorrow.

The deepening and departing low to the north and east and high
pressure building in from Texas, will keep winds elevated
everywhere tomorrow afternoon with gusts in the 20`s and 30`s mph.
Winds will remain elevated over the higher terrain tonight with
gusts nearing 40 mph persisting into tomorrow. Not the best set-
up for wind advisory criteria winds, so one will not be issued at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Key Messages:

1. Some lingering showers in the north during the first half of
Friday night.

2. Otherwise, mostly dry for the weekend into Wednesday, while
also becoming quite warm.


Discussion:

Not a lot of substantive changes to the long term forecast period
from what the night shift had in there. By the start of the long
term period (00z Sat) a large, slightly positively tilted trough
will be situated from the eastern Great Lakes down into the mid-
Atlantic seaboard. Northwesterly flow aloft along with lingering jet
energy and some low level moisture in place will likely result in
some continued northwest flow showers mainly in our Virginia and far
northeast TN into the first half of Friday night. However those
should clear out before daybreak Saturday morning.

Afterwards, the upper low will pull away Saturday and heights will
rise over the region with surface high pressure building into our
area from the south. It looks like the weekend into mid week period
will be mainly dry across our area. Some guidance does show an area
of isentropic ascent to the south of a stationary boundary that
should be located from central Ohio westward into Illinois, but most
guidance keeps us dry so I kept with that thinking. On the
temperature side, we`ll see a quick rebound in temperatures, with
afteroon highs near normal on Sat, then ranging from 10-15 degrees
above normal Sunday through the end of the period.

It`s possible we could see our next chance of rain on the Wed/Thu
timeframe as another trough ejects out of the Rockies into the plains
and pushes a front eastward through TN. The NBM has some slight
chance PoPs by late Wed for this. This doesn`t seem too
unreasonable, but I would say this trough/front don`t look
particularly strong so I wouldn`t be surprised if Wed winds up being
completely dry due to either timing or strength differences as we
get closer to that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Thunderstorms have begun to build and move into the area this
afternoon. TYS and TRI are most likely to be impacted in the next
couple of hours by a quick drop in VSBY and CIGS. CHA, based on
models, may not see the next round of thunderstorms until a
couple more hours. Expect gusts at times over 20 kt at all
terminals with or without thunderstorms. Although winds have yet
to make it to TYS or TRI, LLWS is still noted in the TAF.
Activity will be moving out of the area later tonight from SW to
NE. Lingering showers, patchy fog, and MVFR CIGS possible
overnight, but confidence isn`t all that high. Winds expected to
subside some.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             49  68  46  76 /  20   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  49  63  44  72 /  60  30   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       49  65  44  73 /  40  30   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              48  58  41  67 /  90  70  30   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Diegan
AVIATION...KS