Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 161442 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1042 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018 .DISCUSSION...
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Prominent moisture axis continues to stream across the southern Appalachians at this time supporting widespread showers. Currently, rain rates are rather light, generally three/four tenths an hour at best. Later in the afternoon as instability builds, deeper convection is possible which could increase said rates. With that, areas along the along/adjacent to the high terrain that received ample rainfall last night and this morning could see an increased threat for localized flash flooding. Otherwise, latest vissat/obs indicate nice differential heating across the Plateau at this time, therefore convection is favor to initiate over the next 2-3 hours per latest CAMS, before eastward propagation sends said convection off the Plateau into the valley, eventually dying off near sunset with loss off heating. As for the fcst itself, tweaked max temps slightly downward across the east given ample sky cover and precip. Also adjusted pops to account for recent trends and CAM guide. No other sig changes needed/made at this time.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 79 65 81 66 / 50 30 70 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 64 78 64 / 50 40 80 60 Oak Ridge, TN 78 65 79 65 / 50 50 80 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 73 63 77 62 / 80 50 90 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ CDG

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