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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMRX 121543
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1143 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Updated forecast to increase pops some central sections of the
forecast area with band of showers and a few thunderstorms
expected to develop and move through mid to late afternoon. Still
looks like a few storms could produce small hail with the cold
air aloft. Looks like a sharp cutoff with convection between
central areas and southern sections. Overall winds and
temperatures look good. Winds have increased last couple hours
from the west southwest and should continue to be gusty to 30 to
40 mph at times through around sunset. Updated wind advisory for
the eastern Tennessee Mountains in the past hour.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Key Messages:

1. Lingering showers overnight will come to an end by morning.
This afternoon another round of showers, mainly north of I-40 is
expected as a shortwave approaches the region.

2. Strong winds will peak this afternoon with gusts up to 35 mph
expected in most locations. Gusts will be higher in the mountains.

Discussion:

In the upper levels, a deep trough is over the Eastern U.S. today.
A shortwave will move through the region this afternoon, bringing
clouds and another round of showers to the region, mainly north of
I-40. The best window for showers will be in the afternoon and
evening hours. Thunder potential is fairly low this afternoon
with dew points in the lower 40s. Small hail will be possible with
cold air aloft.

Strong westerly winds are expected mainly this afternoon as 850mb
winds increase. 850 mb winds peak around 40 knots over NE
Tennessee and SW Virginia this afternoon. With increasing cloud
cover mixing will not be ideal but still expect to see gusts up to
35 mph at times. In the mountains gusts will be higher up to 40 or
45 mph. HREF has sustained winds around 20 knots throughout the
region. That seems to line up with the forecast winds.

Temps today will be cooler since a cold front just moved through
and cloud cover is expected this afternoon for much of the region.
Highs will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Tonight, the trough will move east and high pressure moves into
the Southeast. Expect gradual clearing skies tonight with lows in
the 40s by morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Key Messages:

1. Warming trend begins over the weekend and warm weather continues
next week.

2. Generally dry conditions expected, with the best chance of rain
coming mid to late next week.

Discussion:

By Saturday the last remnants of the trough and lingering
precipitation will be well east of the region. In its wake the
atmosphere will not take much time to warm back up as mid level
ridging and surface high pressure combine to quickly warm us up over
the weekend. High temperatures by Sunday are expected to be in the
lower 80s for areas south of Interstate 40 and in the mid 70`s to
the north, about 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Warm and dry conditions will continue through at least Monday when a
weak frontal boundary will try and sag into the area from the north.
A handful of deterministic models try and squeeze out some light
precipitation along this boundary as it moves through the Ohio
Valley, and it could move into far northeast TN and southwest VA on
Monday, but any appreciable rainfall would be very light from this.

Better chances for rain will likely come in the middle of the week
as a strong low pressure system kicks out through the northern
plains into the Great Lakes region and tries to sweep a cold front
through the area. Being 5+ days out models are still in some
disagreement with where/when storms may materialize from this
system, but as of this writing Wednesday looks to be the most likely
time frame. Outside of this chance of storms, most people will just
experience very warm temperatures with daytime highs in the 80`s for
much of the upcoming work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Some showers and MVFR CIGs are currently near TRI. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected outside of showers. This afternoon
another round of showers will affect TYS and TRI. Thunder
potential looks low. Low level wind shear will continue near TYS
and CHA until the surface winds increase this morning. Westerly
winds will be strong, especially this afternoon, with gusts up to
30 knots likely at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  46  76  53 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  60  44  71  52 /  60  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  45  72  50 /  60   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  42  65  46 /  90  60   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TD
AVIATION...McD