Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 210729 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 329 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and Sunday)... Water vapor satellite imagery shows a large upper low centered over the western Colorado/New Mexico border this morning. This upper low will eject from the Rockies today, and will eventually shift eastward across the southern plains and to Arkansas by Sunday morning. Upper ridging ahead of this feature will keep dry and sunny weather entrenched across eastern Tennessee and the southern Appalachians. Expect temperatures this afternoon to be several degrees warmer than Friday, with highs largely in the 70s at lower elevation locales today. Clouds will be on the increase later today, with rain chances increasing tomorrow. Guidance continues to slow the arrival time of rainfall so do not have rain chances ramping up until after daybreak Sunday morning. Eventually though, rainfall will spread across much of the forecast area by Sunday afternoon, with only northeast TN and southwest VA likely to remain dry through the end of the short term. .LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)... The pattern looks to have slowed a bit, such that the closed low that will move from the lower Mississippi Valley into our area will nearly stall over Middle TN during Mon/Tues, and the second trough to swing through may also close off as it now arrives Thursday. But the longwave pattern will continue with troughing over the east, and thus a third shortwave will drop into the SE Fri/Sat. Thus, precip chances will basically last all week long, with temperatures near to below normal. Still.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 50 63 53 / 0 20 80 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 47 67 51 / 0 0 30 70 Oak Ridge, TN 72 47 66 51 / 0 0 30 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 42 69 45 / 0 0 10 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Hancock-Hawkins-Johnson- Northwest Carter-Northwest Greene-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Sullivan-Unicoi- Washington TN. VA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for Lee-Russell-Scott- Washington-Wise. && $$ CD/GC

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