Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 220809 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 409 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and Tonight)... Rainfall will attempt to spread into the forecast area from the southwest today. However it will run into dry air early on, and increasing downslope flow over the mountains in the latter parts of the day. As such an initial push of light rain may make it as far north as the central part of the Tenn Valley, but as downslope flow increases rainfall may erode back to the southwest a bit. Forecast PoPs reflect this trend, with only a slow progression northward this afternoon and evening. As mentioned in previous forecast packages, deep southeasterly flow will setup across the region this afternoon through much of Monday. Guidance continues to indicate the possibility of a mountain wave event, with strong winds extending from the mountaintops down into the adjacent foothills. Given the setup is a favorable one, have gone ahead and upgraded the high wind watch to a High Wind Warning for this evening through Monday. There`s some uncertainty regarding how long these high winds will last, but will let future shifts make any necessary adjustments there. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)... Active weather starts off this period. The upper low will be situated over West Tennessee and northeast Mississippi with the associated surface low over the Missouri Bootheel. This will set up continued strong southeasterly flow over the Appalachians as well as tap into moisture from the Atlantic and Gulf. Therefore, Monday will be wet with strong wind gusts particularly in the mountains and adjacent foothills. Rainfall amounts may be lighter on this side of mountains due to the downslope effect. The upper low will be slow to exit the region due to being cut-off from the northern stream. It won`t be until later Tuesday when the kicker approaches from the northwest. High rainfall chances will persist Monday night into Tuesday before a short window of drying may occur. The next front and associated rainfall will probably be on Wednesday into Wednesday night. A shortwave ridge will follow in its wake on Thursday - so expect dry weather through Thursday night for most locations. By Friday another deep trough over the Ohio Valley will bring northwest flow and precipitation chances for much of the area. Light rain will persist into Saturday for southwest Virginia and extreme northeast Tennessee and the upper trough translates farther east. With this trough...expect much cooler than normal temperatures.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 55 67 54 / 80 90 90 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 67 52 68 53 / 50 70 80 70 Oak Ridge, TN 66 52 67 53 / 50 80 90 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 48 63 49 / 10 50 80 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. TN...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene- Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...None.
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&& $$ CD/AC

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