Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 181843 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 243 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Thursday)... Breezy conditions will continue through the afternoon and evening as low pressure will track across the OH Valley region. Clouds across Middle TN will start to spread into our area through the rest of the day, while the models show precip developing ahead of the cold front from 00Z to 06Z. The NAM produces 0.1 to 0.2 inches of QPF across most of the area tonight, but the GFS/SREF/ECMWF are all under a tenth. Given the dry conditions across the area today, the shallow nature of moisture with dry air above overnight, and a strong midlevel inversion to cap convection, the lower amounts appear more realistic, and will keep PoPs tonight in the chance range until 09Z. Behind the front, a shift of winds to the NW early Thursday morning will usher much colder temperatures into the area, with highs in the 50s tomorrow - closer to the cooler NAM temps than the warmer GFS. Northern sections will maintain broken to overcast cloud cover underneath the midlevel trough passage, and will struggle to reach 50. .LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)... For Thursday night through Friday night, dry northwest flow and surface ridging will keep conditions mostly clear, dry, and chilly during the morning. Areas of frost is expected most location early Friday morning with potential freeze for southwest Virginia, northeast Tennessee, far eastern Tennessee Mountains, and southwest North Carolina. Have issued a freeze watch for these locations. Another concern for Friday and Saturday, will be the dry air-mass and moderating temperatures producing low relative humidity each afternoon. May be a fire concern, especially if the winds can pick up for Saturday ahead of the next system in the southern plains. For Saturday night, upper ridge will break down and begin to move east allowing an upper trough over the Mississippi River Valley to move toward the southern Appalachians. An increasing chance of showers is expected for Sunday with continue chance for Monday and Tuesday as upper low moves slowly across the area.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 50 58 40 67 / 30 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 46 53 36 64 / 40 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 46 55 36 65 / 50 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 44 51 32 61 / 50 10 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for Cherokee-Clay. TN...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk- Hancock-Hawkins-Johnson-Northwest Carter-Northwest Greene- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene- Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Washington TN. VA...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for Lee-Russell-Scott-Washington-Wise.
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&& $$ DGS/DH

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