460
FXUS65 KMSO 121845
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1245 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...Very little change was noted in model guidance
through next weekend with only minor changes made to the prior
forecast and discussion.

High pressure remains over the region today which will result in
another warm and dry afternoon. Today will likely be the warmest
day of the week, with valley temperatures toping out in the upper
70s to low 80s.

The pattern begins to change tonight into Monday as a weak
disturbance drops through the region out of British Columbia.
This feature will allow temperatures to drop slightly with breezy
winds developing (gusts of 20-30 mph) on Monday. Watch for choppy
conditions on area lakes. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms will also develop by Monday afternoon, mainly across
western Montana.

Monday night into Tuesday, a weak trough of low pressure will be
settled over the region. In addition to cooler temperatures,
precipitation will develop. The main focus will be across
northwest Montana and along the Continental Divide, where the
probability of 0.25" or more of precipitation ranges between 20 to
40 percent. Snow levels will be above 7000 feet, which will keep
snow accumulations to the highest mountain peaks.

Breezy west to northwest flow is favored for the Wednesday-
Thursday time frame. Forecast models still diverge a bit by late
next week. Roughly 60 percent show a colder/wetter trough moving
over the region, while the other 40 percent lean towards more of a
zonal (westerly) flow that would bring near normal temperatures
and gusty afternoon winds.



&&

.AVIATION...High pressure will bring fair weather to the Northern
Rockies airspace into this evening. Expect partly cloudy skies
with diurnally driven winds and typical Spring-time afternoon
gusts of 15-20kts. The high pressure ridge breaks down tonight
into Monday as a shortwave drops out of British Columbia, westerly
winds (gusts of 20-25kts) and shower activity increases Monday
afternoon.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$