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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS66 KMTR 252059
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
159 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Cool temperatures will continue today. A cold front will bring
a chance for light rain beginning tonight, with strong winds
Friday night. Increasing sunshine will kick off a warming trend
Sat-Tue.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Cloudy conditions continue, with breezy to gusty northwest wind this
afternoon and evening as the upper level pattern continues to shift
behind the low pressure center`s passage. An additional trough passes
through the area overnight, bringing widespread drizzle chances with
light rain possible on higher elevations and along the coast.


Precip chances pause Friday afternoon, but cloud cover will still be
persistent. Friday`s pressure gradient change will make for even
breezier conditions that afternoon specifically for higher peaks and
along the Big Sur coast. The trough looks to be slow to exit
Saturday morning with additional drizzle chances expected along with
another round of light rain chances on higher elevations and along
the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The new upper level pattern  keeps mostly northwest onshore flow into
the weekend. While the immediate coast will continue to struggle
with cloud cover, most areas slightly more inland and well into the
interior will see quicker clearing times. This will place most areas
back into the 60s and 70s into the next work week, while the coast
will stick to around 60 degree highs. By the late week, some of
those more interior locations look to break into the low 80s.



Longer term models are in better agreement that the next rain maker
may just stay well to the north of the Bay Area and Central Coast as
the ECMWF model families have adjusted the next trough to arrive
over Seattle rather than the Bay area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1056 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Satellite shows low ceilings shuffling through the region
causing MVFR conditions over most of the terminals. Onshore winds
will continue to build to breezy and gusty through the afternoon
with some terminals seeing relief overnight to moderate winds. SF
Bay terminals are expected to remain gusty and breezy through the
TAF period. Stratus may lift to VFR for brief moments this afternoon
before lower ceilings will return tonight bringing a mix of VFR/MVFR
conditions overnight. VFR is expected to return by Friday morning.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR with W/NW breezy and gusty winds. Models
suggest a short brief moment of VFR near the afternoon but had low
confidence to include in TAFs. If lifting does occur, expect MVFR
conditions to linger near by the terminals. Winds will remain breezy
and gusty through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR through most of the TAF period for
KMRY but KSNS may see a temporary lift to VFR this afternoon. Winds
will become breezy and gusty this afternoon, before transitions to
moderate overnight. VFR expected to prevail after 12Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1056 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Moderate northwesterly winds persist through Friday morning with
occasional fresh to strong gusts through various portions of the
coastal waters, mostly in the southern waters. Winds strengthen
to become strong and gusty into Friday afternoon with gale-force
gusts likely near the Big Sur coast. These strong and gusty
northwesterly winds last through the weekend and into at least the
early portion of next week, bringing hazardous conditions for
small craft vessels. Moderate period northwest swell will
continue to move through the waters this weekend, with a new
longer period northwest swell train entering the waters Sunday.
Light, long period southerly swell continues through end of
forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos
     to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
     NM.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...SO
MARINE...SO

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