-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
334
FXUS66 KMTR 201736
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1036 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1237 PM PDT Sun May 19 2024

Typical summer-like pattern to persist throughout the first half of
the week. Temperatures are forecast to dip below seasonal averages
by late week and into the upcoming weekend as an upper level trough
impacts the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 907 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

Satellite imagery shows stratus starting to clear across the
lower elevations of the Central Coast, a trend expected to
continue through the rest of the morning. Sunshine is expected
across the region this afternoon with stratus impacts mainly
confined to the coastal regions tonight, especially near Monterey
Bay. No changes to the forecast at this time.

DialH
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 307 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

Stratus coverage is less widespread tonight with the Fort Ord
profiler showing the marine layer nearly mixed out. That being said
persistence is key and stratus has developed along the coastline of
the Monterey Bay and San Francisco Peninsula. Similar to the past
few days, stratus coverage is expected to dissipate by mid-morning
with sunny skies through the afternoon. Gusty to gale force winds
over the coastal waters should keep the marine layer well mixed and
see stratus coverage limited to the coastline for the next few days.
There is a low potential (less than 10%) for drizzle in coastal
areas tonight with up to trace accumulations possible.

Inland temperatures will remain seasonal to slightly above average
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. A few locations across the North
and East Bays may see highs reach the low 80s. Along the coast,
stratus will continue to limit daytime warming with temperatures
slightly below average in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

Over the coastal waters, gustier, northerly winds continue through
the end of the week. The marine layer will stay fairly well mixed
for the next few days with stratus confined along the coast and
minimal stratus impacts inland. Slight warming trend through mid-
week caused by weaker onshore flow and increasingly northerly winds
inland remains on track. Ensemble guidance and the NBM are in
agreement that Tuesday will be the warmest day this week with
temperatures reaching into the mid 80s. There is fairly good
agreement that high temperatures will stay in the mid 80`s but NBM
90th percentile does show a few sites in the North Bay reaching the
upper 80s (88-89 degree range). In comparison to yesterday`s
forecast, Tuesday high temperatures have increased by a few degrees
from the low to mid 80`s to predominantly in the mid 80s. Minor heat
risk is expected throughout most of the Bay Area and Central Coast
(Santa Cruz Mountains, Salinas Valley, portions of the Monterey
Peninsula) Monday through Wednesday as slightly above average
temperatures persist. People who are incredibly sensitive to heat
should take precautions while outdoors and remember to drink plenty
of water.

Temperatures will cool down by the late week as a stronger upper
level trough moves inland Friday/Saturday. This systems looks fairly
dry with ensemble guidance indicating very low chances of
accumulating precipitation with it. CPC guidance continues to
indicate predominantly below average temperatures and slightly above
average precipitation through the end of May.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

MVFR stratus is clearing across the Central Coast valleys and will
completely mix out later this morning. Breezy and gusty onshore
winds will develop in the afternoon, with the gusts generally up to
20 knots at the terminals. Generally VFR conditions for the interior
through the night, with moderate confidence (40-60% probability) of
patchy MVFR stratus developing early Tuesday morning around
Monterey Bay and a lower confidence (10-20% probability) of
further development elsewhere on the coast south of the Golden
Gate.

Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Breezy and gusty west-
northwest winds with gusts up to 25-28 knots developing later this
afternoon, diminishing in the evening and resuming Tuesday
afternoon. Probability of gusts above 35 knots is near zero.

SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR stratus will clear out later this
morning. Breezy northwest winds will develop in the afternoon and
diminish in the evening. Model output shows a moderate confidence
(40-60% probability) of some patchy MVFR stratus around the region
early Tuesday morning, with the period of highest probability from
10-16Z. Probabilities for stratus are higher in the area north of
MRY and south of WVI.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 907 AM PDT Mon May 20 2024

Strong and gusty northwest winds persist over the coastal waters
through Thursday. Expect hazardous conditions and steeper wind
waves during the week. Winds look to ease later in the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kennedy
LONG TERM....Kennedy
AVIATION...DialH
MARINE...DialH

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