001
FXUS63 KOAX 301932
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
232 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms this afternoon into evening. A Tornado Watch is
  in effect.

- Storms redevelop Wednesday and linger into Thursday,
  with potential for a few severe storms and flash flooding.

- An active weather pattern will continue into the weekend,
  though severe weather chances appear low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.This afternoon and evening:

Storms are rapidly developing this afternoon over parts of
eastern NE amidst an environment favorable for supercell storm
modes capable of very large hail and tornadoes. A residual
outflow boundary extending from near Atlantic, IA west-northwest
to near Fremont may end up focusing the greatest tornado threat.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold
front sweeping through the area later this afternoon into
evening, upon which damaging wind potential would increase,
especially if storms can evolve into linear structures.

The storms are expected move out of the area by 8 PM with gusty
northwest winds diminishing.

.Wednesday and Wednesday night:

The 12z models continue to suggest that the above-mentioned
front will stall across KS and then begin to lift north toward
the NE border Wednesday evening. Elevated showers and
thunderstorms are expected to spread north across the area
Wednesday, to the north of the warm front over KS. Isolated
occurrences of large hail appear possible with the strongest
storms, especially south of I-80 in Nebraska during the
afternoon and evening hours. Any surface-based, severe weather
risk (e.g., tornadoes and/or damaging winds) will be contingent
on whether the warm front can make it into our area.

Thunderstorms are forecast to become more widespread Wednesday
night into Thursday morning, along and ahead of a surface low,
which will develop into eastern NE. In addition to a risk for
isolated severe weather, flash flooding is expected to become a
greater concern.

.Thursday:

Some flooding/severe threat could develop Thursday along a cold
front moving through the area, as highlighted by SPC/WPC
outlooks.

Beyond Thursday:

The previous AFD remains valid.

Beyond Thursday, the pattern remains fairly active with
guidance in pretty good agreement of another shortwave trough
moving through sometime Friday night into Saturday and bringing
more rain chances. It`s still early, but the severe weather
threat looks low with this one, with a general lack of
instability and moisture. There are signs of an additional
system sometime Sunday/Monday, but confidence is quite low with
a lot of spread in various ensembles. Otherwise, expect most
days over the next week to see high temperatures in the mid 60s
and/or mid 70s, outside of today, which will be a bit warmer
(mid 70s to mid 80s).



&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across
portions of eastern NE by 19 to 20z with KOFK and KOMA the most
likely terminal locations to be affected by the storms. Ceilings
are likely to remain at or above FL040; however, visibilities
could be briefly reduced to 3-5sm with any thunderstorm
occurrence at the terminal. The storms are expected to shift
east of the terminal locations by 22-23z with gusty southeast to
south winds switching to northwest with gusts up to 25 to 30 kt
with the passage of a cold front through the area. The winds
are forecast to diminish later this evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Mead