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000
FXUS64 KOHX 161621
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1121 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

This morning`s showers have moved out of the CWA and satellite
imagery shows cloud cover diminishing as the boundary layer sees
better mixing. Temperatures are lagging behind by 2-3 degrees
from where they were at this time yesterday. There is a large
break in cloud cover that has developed W of I-65 and is expanding
E. This should allow for better heating leading to our highs
today still reaching the low to mid 80s. This evening, cloud cover
will increase once again ahead of a developing front associated
with a surface low over Nebraska. As this front marches E, shower
activity is expected to increase over Middle TN late tonight into
early Wednesday morning.

We have been monitoring the threat for severe weather on
Wednesday, and overall, the threat is looking minimal for Middle
TN at this time. Latest SPS outlook has shifted the slight risk N,
leaving TN with a marginal risk. There are a few issues with the
overall set up. One being the location of the surface low. The low
is currently over Nebraska and is forecasted to track NE into
Iowa and then Michigan. This keeps the best forcing N of TN.
Additionally, the front itself looks to bring very little moisture
into TN with some of the latest CAMs showing no precipitation at
all moving through. Taking a look at the 500mb level, there is
some diffluent flow Wednesday morning, but quickly becomes mostly
zonal by Wednesday afternoon/evening limiting upward motion. Some
pros, Wednesday afternoon, CAMs forecast sufficient CAPE values
around 1500-2000 J/kg, good mid-level lapse rates from 7-9 C/km,
and sufficient deep layer shear along with storm helicity values
between 150-290. That said, these things don`t matter if storms
don`t develop. This will ultimately be the question and something
that will have to be monitored through the day Wednesday. If
storms do develop, some could become severe with he greatest
threat being wind and hail at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A brief break in the rain is expected Wednesday night and Thursday
morning, however, a large upper-level low setting up over southern
Canada and a series of embedded shortwaves will keep an active
pattern continuing through the weekend. Off-and-on showers with a
few thunderstorms will be possible each day Thursday through
Sunday, and temperatures will gradually cool through the weekend.
Can`t rule out a stray strong thunderstorm on Thursday, but CAPE
and shear values look too weak for a widespread severe threat. Dry
weather returns next Monday, but a look out into the extended
hints that it might not last that long.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

With continued strengthening of low level atmospheric pressure
gradient influences, of particular concern to general aviation
interest, is LLWS at top of 2 Kft layer up to 45kts 17/03Z-17/09Z
CKV/BNA/MQY. With 2-3 hrs only, and not high confidence on
terminal development or movement across, just went with VCTS.
Best confidence in tstm development potential CKV and thus went
with best chance of tstm occurrence during two hr interval. Sfc
sustained winds becoming around 10 kts with gusts up to 25kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  67  81  64 /  10  70  40  10
Clarksville    83  66  82  62 /  10  90  10  10
Crossville     79  62  73  59 /  10  20  50   0
Columbia       83  65  79  63 /   0  60  50  10
Cookeville     82  64  74  62 /  20  40  60   0
Jamestown      81  62  75  60 /  20  30  50   0
Lawrenceburg   83  64  77  64 /   0  50  60  10
Murfreesboro   86  65  79  63 /  10  50  50  10
Waverly        84  65  82  64 /  10  80  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....JB Wright