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856
FXUS64 KOHX 011726
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1226 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Due to continuance of ridging influences surface and aloft, dry
conditions with just some passing clouds here and there will be
in store for mid state region through Thursday afternoon. With
a predominance of lower level atmospheric southerly flow,
unseasonably warm temperatures are expected to continue. Lows
tonight will be seasonably mild ranging upper 50s to lower 60s,
mid 50s Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Thursday might even
be a degree or two warmer than today with highs mid to upper 80s,
maybe even approaching in a few spots the 90 degree mark across
the Nashville Metro Area, with lower 80s across Cumberland Plateau
Region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A more active and unsettled weather pattern will be in store for
our area during the long term forecast period. Starting from the
mid evening hours on Thursday night, mainly scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will push west to east across mid state
region as southwesterly upper level flow begins to develop and
within that flow a pronounced shortwave passage with a surface
cold front pushing into the mid MS River Valley Region. Surface
front will push into and move northwest to southeast across our
area on Friday with another front approaching the area just after
sunrise on Sunday but it will eventually push as a warm front
northeastward as first part of next work week progresses. Quasi
zonal flow aloft will persist through much of upcoming weekend
with a more pronounced upper level shortwave passage on Sunday
night with a return to at least quasi southwesterly flow as next
work week progresses. This will bring rounds of showers and
thunderstorms to our area, with best chances of rainfall Friday
Night into Saturday with at least isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorm chances persisting through first part of next
work week. Total rainfall amounts look to range from around one
inch to around two inches of rainfall Thursday night through next
Wednesday. A strong storm or two is not out of the question, but
organized severe weather potential is not expected. After
initially cooler temperatures over the weekend, temperatures will
once again warm to above seasonal normal values by mid portion of
next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. Light winds,
predominantly from the S/SE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Nashville      62  89  66  80 /   0   0  50  80
Clarksville    61  87  65  79 /   0   0  60  90
Crossville     56  82  62  74 /   0   0  20  80
Columbia       59  87  65  79 /   0   0  40  80
Cookeville     59  85  64  75 /   0   0  30  80
Jamestown      57  85  62  76 /   0   0  20  80
Lawrenceburg   60  86  65  78 /   0   0  40  80
Murfreesboro   59  88  65  79 /   0   0  40  80
Waverly        62  87  64  78 /   0   0  60  90
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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Adcock