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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KOHX 212320
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
620 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The light showers that have been effecting our southern counties
are pushing out and we are seeing cold air advection build over
the region. This is bringing clearing skies and we should see a
sunny afternoon. Highs will remain on the chilly side again today
pushing into the lower 60s. Overnight will bring clear skies and
light winds. This will cool us into the 30s and frost is likely
across the area by daybreak. A Frost Advisory has been posted for
all of Middle TN.

Upper level ridge builds in from the West early this week and that
will bring great weather with the start of a warming trend. Highs
will be about 5 degrees warmer tomorrow pushing into the mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

We will see another cool night Monday night but should be a bit
warmer than tonight and frost is unlikely. Upper level ridge will
push east on Tuesday as a trough digs into the Great Lakes. This
will push a weak cold front into our area later Tuesday into early
Wednesday and may bring a few light spotty showers. The front
will have little effect on temperatures with highs in the 70s.
Upper level ridging builds in behind the trough and will bring
quiet weather for much of the remainder of the week with
continued warming temperatures. We should see them push back to
near 80 by the end of the week.

Things will start to become a bit more unsettled late week into
the weekend as long wave troughing sets up over the West. This
will push short waves into the Plains and with southwest flow we
will see deep Gulf moisture build back north. Ensembles disagree
with exact timing and placement of the short waves but do agree on
keeping the forcing to our northwest with us sitting on the
western edge of the upper level ridge. With dew points pushing
into the 60s we will see CAPE build in over the area. This will
result in thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast but
widespread convection isn`t expected through the weekend. Highs
will be warming well into the 80s also.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle. Breezy north winds
will relax by 02Z for all terminals then become light and variable
on Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
Nashville      40  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    36  65  43  72 /   0   0   0  10
Crossville     34  61  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       36  66  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     36  62  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      34  61  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   36  65  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   36  66  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        37  66  44  72 /   0   0   0  10
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Monday for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Unger