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686
FXUS64 KOHX 031702
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1202 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled
weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period.
Mid state will be remaining in the broad warm sector of synoptic
But, looking at the short term, maybe some breaks in potential
rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across
locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon.
Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not
expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will
be seasonably mild in the low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will
also be above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower
80s, mid 70s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain
in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west
and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and
potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can
count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of
convective development. Just like in the short term, some strong
storms may be possible at times, but all in all, really not
expecting any organized severe storm potential at this time.
The only exception to this is the hinting by SPC in its latest
Day Outlook hinting at strong convection being possible near the
Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue
to be seasonably warm. As for all these rounds of showers and
storms expected, total rainfall amounts this afternoon through
Friday afternoon are expected to generally range 2.5" to 3.5."
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&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Showers have spread across Middle Tennessee this morning, and it
appears that low ceilings are soon to move in as the boundary
layer becomes more saturated. Rain chances stay with us for the
foreseeable future, so get used to these kinds of TAFs. There is
some instability in the atmosphere, especially during the
afternoon, so we`ve included a few hours of VCTS after 18Z.
However, we don`t expect any sort of organized convection, so it
is difficult to pinpoint any exact timing of thunderstorm activity
due to their scattered nature. Rain chances will taper off
(temporarily) by this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Nashville      80  66  82  65 /  90  50  70  50
Clarksville    78  63  80  64 /  90  50  50  40
Crossville     74  61  74  60 / 100  50  80  50
Columbia       80  63  80  64 /  90  60  70  50
Cookeville     76  63  76  62 /  90  50  80  50
Jamestown      75  61  76  60 / 100  50  80  50
Lawrenceburg   80  64  79  64 /  90  60  70  50
Murfreesboro   80  64  79  63 / 100  40  70  50
Waverly        79  63  80  64 /  80  50  50  50
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&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Rose