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000
FXUS64 KOHX 141043
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
543 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Early this Sunday morning, temperatures were much warmer than
yesterday at this time thanks to south breezes. You can expect
daybreak readings mostly in the 50s. As southwest winds become
increasingly gusty up to 30 mph, high temps will reach the lower
to mid 80s for most locations. The upper level ridge overhead
will be flattened slightly by a system moving across the Ohio
Valley. Yesterday`s CAMs had been showing potential for an
isolated shower across our northern counties from this feature.
Although a stray shower cannot be ruled out, latest models show
nothing and it appears there will be a strong enough cap in place
to keep today rain-free.

For BNA, today`s normal high is 72 and we are forecasting 84. The
record high for today is 89 from 2017. Tomorrow`s forecast is 84
and the record is 87 from 1936.

Warm and dry wx will continue tonight and Monday. South to
southwest breezes will continue, although the pressure gradient
and gust values will be lower than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The warm and dry pattern will persist Monday night and Tuesday.
By Tuesday night, the upper level ridge will move to our east as
a powerful low pressure system moves eastward from the Plains with
widespread stormy wx. The main low pressure center and strongest
wind energy will track well to our north, but we will be impacted
by a swath of deep moisture and instability. The first batch of
weakening showers and storms will come in Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning and another batch will form along the main cold
front later Wednesday as it crosses our area. Although the
strongest dynamics will be up north, we will have enough shear and
instability for some strong to severe storm potential Tuesday
night and Wednesday. We will have to watch updated models and see
what happens as the system evolves out to our west.

Another round of scattered showers and weaker storms is expected
on Thursday into Friday as a secondary upper low shifts out of
southern Canada into the Great Lakes, forcing a strong cold front
down our way. This front will usher in a much cooler air mass for
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

VFR conditions expected this TAF cycle. Winds will get gusty again
today with southwest gusts of 25-30 kts starting around 15Z at
all terminals. LLWS still at BNA/MQY/CKV for the next couple of
hours before surface winds can pick up later this morning. Winds
will relax after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      84  60  84  64 /   0   0   0  10
Clarksville    82  62  82  63 /   0   0  10  10
Crossville     77  56  78  57 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia       83  59  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     79  57  78  61 /   0   0  10  10
Jamestown      78  57  78  58 /   0  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   81  58  82  62 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   83  58  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        82  61  82  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Unger