Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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000
FXUS64 KOHX 221121
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
621 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Eight days after our last rain, things are finally starting to
change as an upper low over Arklatex is trying pull some Gulf
moisture northward. As part of this system, light returns are
already being seen on the radar however, with 25 to 35 degree dew
point depressions, very little of this is reaching the ground. The
bulk of the rain from this system will hold off until later this
afternoon as the main batch of energy passes us to the south. We
remain well north of the warm sector, so no thunder is expected and
rainfall totals still look to be rather meager. Around a half inch
in the southeast, maybe a touch more, and much less in the
northwest. Some light rain may linger on the Plateau just past
daybreak tomorrow, clouds will clear out through the day and some
should see sun by Saturday afternoon. However, temperatures will be
on the cooler side with gusty north winds of 20-25 mph. Conditions
will take a turn for the better on Sunday with much more sun
afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Our second shot at rain in the next week has slowed slightly in this
latest batch of models, but on the whole, we`re still looking at a
Monday night arrival of showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder.
Instability numbers are still very low. Latest ensemble
probabilities shows an 80% chance of less than 100 J/Kg being able
to build into the mid-state, so it`s going to take some frontal
forcing to help in the endeavor of thunderstorm development. We`re
also still seeing indications of a very windy Monday night. Probs
are about the same as last night, though the coverage is slightly
less. Even so, a Wind Advisory looks to be in the cards with gusts
of 40-45 mph looking likely. For about the 3rd night in a row,
rainfall totals have ticked up with this system. WPC guidance could
be on the low end right now, but we`re solidly looking at 1 to 2
inches with this system. Currently, ensembles have about a 70% shot
for those south of I-40, closer to the Alabama state line to get
between 2 and 3 inches of rain Monday night and Tuesday.
Beyond Tuesday, extended guidance is all over the place regarding
rain chances, but on the whole, the rest of next week looks pretty
benign with afternoon highs warming each day until next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
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(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Light showers are passing through, but VFR conditions remain.
Expect additional showers to move in by this afternoon, with
ceilings falling to MVFR/IFR after 03Z. E winds will become SE and
gusty (15 to 20 kts) between 15Z and 00Z, before a sharp turn to
N. Expect winds to calm after 00Z, before becoming gusty once
again near the end of the current TAF period.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 72 48 59 34 / 70 90 0 0
Clarksville 71 43 57 32 / 40 50 0 0
Crossville 66 46 54 30 / 40 90 30 0
Columbia 71 47 59 33 / 80 90 0 0
Cookeville 69 47 55 32 / 50 90 20 0
Jamestown 68 44 54 29 / 40 90 20 0
Lawrenceburg 70 48 58 34 / 90 90 10 0
Murfreesboro 72 48 59 33 / 80 90 10 0
Waverly 71 43 58 35 / 50 60 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Adcock