Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
748 FXUS64 KOHX 280512 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1212 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 939 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Warm and breezy evening across the midstate with current temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. LLJ will remain around 25-30 knots through the night, so temps will not drop much overnight with lows around 60 on the Plateau and low to mid 60s elsewhere. No precip is anticipated until Monday. Updated grids/zones based on latest obs but no significant changes made. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Monday Night) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Warm and somewhat humid for late April across the mid state this morning. The patchy shower activity to our west has all but ended. Temperatures are well into the 60s with southerly winds of 10-20 mph. Still looking at lower 80s for highs with a few peaks of sunshine for this afternoon. Through Sunday night, a surface high will remain off of the Atlantic coast. Meanwhile a low pressure system over the central Plains will be tracking northeastward. The gradient between the 2 features will continue to enhance our southerly flow with moderate winds being sustained. The surface low`s associated frontal boundary will experience a weakening trend as it approaches our area on Monday. Lifting however will become enhanced with a post frontal shortwave into Tuesday. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday and into Tuesday. Instabilities will max out on Monday afternoon but 850 mb speeds will remain below 30kts and organization is on the weak side. So far, just a general risk is indicated. Otherwise, rainfall amounts look like a half inch to three quarters of an inch. For the near term temps, values look rather steady and quite mild for this time of year. Lows 60 to 65 and highs 80 to 85. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 In the extended forecast, again, showers and thunderstorms will still be around on Tuesday with that shortwave. Pattern will then morph to a more active southwesterly regime. Model uncertainties exist in terms of a break for mid week prior to the commencement of a more active pattern. It does look like a frontal system will finally arrive toward the weekend. This boundary holds a little more promise for a marginal risk perhaps. However, mid level jet resides to our north again. Moreover, though the surface low strengthens with ample ul support, it takes a far northerly track. No day 6-7 risk from spc thus far. Otherwise, our 7 day precip totals look like 1-2 inches. For the extended temps, mild conditions will continue. Behind the weekend system though, a little cooler but still above normal. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Southerly winds up to 11 knots overnight increasing after 13z to 10 to 16 knots gusting up to 24 knots. Breezy winds diminish after 00z. Periods of high level clouds with mid-level clouds developing tomorrow morning into the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 84 64 82 63 / 0 0 40 80 Clarksville 84 64 80 61 / 0 10 70 80 Crossville 78 58 78 58 / 0 0 10 70 Columbia 84 64 82 62 / 0 0 40 80 Cookeville 80 62 80 60 / 0 0 10 80 Jamestown 80 60 80 59 / 0 0 10 80 Lawrenceburg 82 63 82 62 / 0 0 30 80 Murfreesboro 84 64 84 62 / 0 0 30 80 Waverly 84 66 80 61 / 0 10 70 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Shamburger SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION.....Mueller