Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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286 FXUS64 KOHX 032321 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 621 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 There are just so many ways one can state that an unsettled weather pattern will persist through this entire forecast period. Looking at the short term part, maybe some breaks in potential rounds of showers and storms, earlier this afternoon and across locations around and west of I-65 corridor on Saturday afternoon. Yes, a few strong storms may be possible at times, but really not expecting any organized severe storm potential. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild in low to mid 60s. Highs on Saturday will also be above seasonal normal values ranging upper 70s to lower 80s, mid 70s higher elevations of Cumberland Plateau Region. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Looking into a little bit more detail here, mid state will remain in the warm sector of synoptic surface frontal systems to our west and north with prevalence of southwesterly flow aloft and potentially more upper level disturbance passages than one can count embedded within this flow aiding in these rounds of convective developments. Just like in the short term, some strong storms may be possible at times, but all in all, really not expecting any organized severe storm potential at this time. The only exception to this is the hinting by SPC in its latest Day Five Outlook of strong convection being possible near Land of the Lakes Region on Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to be seasonably warm. As for all these rounds of showers and storms expected, total rainfall amounts this afternoon through Friday afternoon are expected to generally range 2.5" to 3.5." && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across Middle TN. The threat will mainly be just to the south and east of Nashville through 03z. IFR/LIFR conditions in any thunderstorms with heavy rain, low vis, and low cigs. Things dry out after 03z and there is a slight chance for light showers overnight. Scattered activity will develop again tomorrow after 16z but should be less widespread than today. Light southerly winds under 6 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 66 82 65 85 / 40 70 50 70 Clarksville 64 80 65 82 / 40 50 40 70 Crossville 61 74 60 78 / 60 80 50 80 Columbia 64 80 63 84 / 60 70 50 80 Cookeville 63 76 62 80 / 60 80 50 80 Jamestown 61 76 60 80 / 60 80 50 80 Lawrenceburg 64 79 63 82 / 60 70 50 80 Murfreesboro 64 79 63 84 / 50 70 50 80 Waverly 64 80 64 83 / 50 50 50 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB Wright LONG TERM....JB Wright AVIATION.....Mueller