000
FXUS64 KOHX 230118
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
818 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 811 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

With ridging in place, it`s gonna be a very quiet night. Winds are
very light to calm with a couple of high clouds streaming across
the area. May be a good night for some Lyrid meteor shower
viewing, though the (almost) full moon might make it difficult.
Tomorrow, while still pretty quiet until after sunset, things will
change with a front headed this way. Still looks like some light
showers moving into the area late tomorrow evening, but it`s going
to be breezy all day as the pressure gradient tightens across the
area. Gusts of 20-30 mph will be common, especially during the
afternoon. Oh, and when I say light rain, QPFs are a tenth or
less. Have a great night!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A surface ridge will slide across Middle Tennessee today, setting
us up for warmer weather beginning tomorrow. The atmosphere across
the region is very dry. The morning Precipitable Water value at
OHX was 0.29", which is below the 10th percentile for this date
and only 22% of the daily mean. Look for the surface pressure
gradient to increase tomorrow once the aforementioned ridge pulls
farther east. Combined with continued low RH values, this will put
Middle Tennessee in a marginal fire weather danger.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1009 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A weak surface boundary will sweep across the area tomorrow night,
bringing low rain chances mainly to areas north of I-40.
Additional low rain chances will come our way with the approach of
a warm front from the southwest, but this is not going to be a
substantial rain-producer. Better rain chances will happen this
weekend when a cold front pushes through Middle Tennessee, but QPF
totals throughout the next 7 days are below 1/4" across the
greater portion of the mid state, and below 1/2" for all but the
northwest corner of the forecast area. Meanwhile, daytime
temperatures will reach the 80s in many areas by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions throughout this TAF cycle. Calm winds overnight
will shift to the south tomorrow and become gusty around 15Z. Look
for gusts of 20-25 kts through at least sunset Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      44  74  56  75 /   0   0  30   0
Clarksville    42  73  54  72 /   0  10  30   0
Crossville     38  69  51  69 /   0   0  40  10
Columbia       41  73  55  75 /   0   0  10   0
Cookeville     41  70  53  70 /   0   0  40   0
Jamestown      39  70  51  69 /   0   0  50   0
Lawrenceburg   42  73  55  74 /   0   0  10   0
Murfreesboro   39  74  55  75 /   0   0  20   0
Waverly        43  73  55  74 /   0   0  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Unger