Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 260154
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
854 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

An initial wave of showers and storms are moving east of I-65 with
more showers moving in from West Tennessee and northern
Mississippi. Less lightning activity is noted with the second wave.
The showers have limited the wind gusts for areas west of I-65. I
expect 40-50 mph gusts are still possible along the plateau, but
the gusts may be limited to below 40 mph west of I-65 where shower
activity is more widespread. With that said, the wind advisory
will be allowed to continue for the entire area. Showers will
linger through the night and into the morning hours on Tuesday.
NBM PoPs seem to be a little quick clearing out the rain chances,
so PoPs were extended a couple more hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

We will see active weather over the next 24 or so hours as a deep
994 mb low sites off to our west. This will bring very strong
winds to the region today into tomorrow and that will be the
biggest impact in the forecast. Currently we are seeing about an 8
mb gradient from Memphis to Knoxville with wind gusts 25 to 35
mph across the area. These types of wind gusts will continue into
the afternoon before we start to see them strengthen in the
evening as the low pressure system start to push northeast. This
will increase the pressure gradient and bring widespread 40 to 50
mph wind gusts with a few gusts up to 55 mph possible. The time
frame for the strongest wind gusts will be from 7 PM to 3 AM. The
gradient will looses up by daybreak but winds will continue to be
somewhat breezy tomorrow gusting 20 to 30 mph.

This low pressure system will also bring a line of showers and
thunderstorms later this evening into the overnight. A warm front
will lift north through Middle TN this evening with the cold front
quickly sweeping in behind it. A few showers will be possible
behind the warm front but the main line of showers and
thunderstorms will come with the cold front which should push into
the west after 10 PM and will continue to work east overnight.
The front does look to slow down and will linger over the area and
that will bring some lingering showers to mainly eastern areas
into the early afternoon Tuesday.

Surface based instability it going to be tough to find over
Middle TN with this cold front but we will have some elevated
instability up to 400 j/kg. With the instability staying elevated
we are not expecting severe weather but a few thunderstorms with
heavy rain will be possible with the line. Rain totals all said
and done should range from 0.50-1.50" with the highest amount in
southern areas.

Highs today will be in the 60s and with the front mainly lingering
over us on Tuesday we will manage to warm into the upper 60s to
near 70. Higher dew points will be building in later this
afternoon into the evening but prior to that it will be dry and
with the strong winds we will see elevated fire weather conditions
through the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Quieter weather is then expected for the rest of the week but we
will remain in a troughing pattern. Not expecting any precip but
temperatures will be a little cooler in the 60s. A strong upper
level ridge will then start to build in towards the end of the
week with things warming back up into the 70s by Friday. Quiet and
warm over the weekend. Our next chance for rain will come next
week as a trough tracks out of the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

No change in aviation forecast as a line of rain and thunderstorms
move through Middle TN this evening. VFR conditions will lower to
MVFR with some pockets of IFR possible with heavier rain reducing
visibility. Wind will be the greatest concern with surface winds
around 20 kts and gusting to 40 kts. Tonight those winds will
increase, gusting to near 50 kts before decreasing early Tuesday
morning. Aloft, LLWS is expected around 60-65kts then diminishing
through late Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  73  42  63 / 100  70   0   0
Clarksville    55  70  38  59 / 100  30   0   0
Crossville     50  62  40  62 /  80  90  10  10
Columbia       56  72  40  62 / 100  60   0   0
Cookeville     53  67  42  61 /  90  90  10  10
Jamestown      50  65  41  61 /  70  90  10  10
Lawrenceburg   56  71  41  62 / 100  70   0   0
Murfreesboro   55  73  40  63 /  90  80   0   0
Waverly        56  70  39  60 / 100  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for Bedford-Cannon-Cheatham-
Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Fentress-Giles-
Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-
Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-Putnam-Robertson-
Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van Buren-Warren-Wayne-
White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Cravens


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