000
FXUS64 KOHX 190509
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1209 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

We started off cloudy this morning, but the clouds have been
breaking up and we expect temps to take off into the low to mid
80s this afternoon. As temps warm, the atmosphere will destabilize
with capes rising to 1000-2000 J/kg by late afternoon. This will
set the stage for development of showers and thunderstorms.

The first storms will form late this afternoon and evening as
an impulse moves northeast from the Southern Ms Valley. This
impulse will bring a first round of scattered thunderstorms
starting as early as 3 PM in our western counties, with storms
peaking in coverage and intensity from 7 PM to 10 PM. Later this
evening, another batch of thunderstorms in the form of a
weakening QLCS will come from the west ahead of a cold front.

Each of these rounds of storms has the potential to produce severe
wx, although latest models are not very impressive bringing shear
and instability together. Generally, the greatest thunderstorm
coverage and severe potential will exist west of I-65. It looks
like the first batch will arrive with fairly strong cape but weak
to marginal deep layer shear. A handful of warnings may bee issued
for localized wind gusts over 60 mph and severe hail over 1 inch
in diameter. Later in the evening, the instability wanes, but
shear values will become higher as the QLCS approaches. Damaging
wind gusts of 60 mph appear to be the main concern for late
evening and overnight, but a tornado cannot be ruled out for our
far northwest counties. The incoming band of storms may fall apart
pretty quickly while encountering mediocre lapse rates and more
stable surface air, possibly already worked over by early evening
storms.

Otherwise, a few spots may have some brief street flooding with
any heavy downpours this evening. We don`t expect widespread
flooding problems.

Showers and few leftover storms will move out Friday morning. We
will be left with mostly cloudy and cooler conditions as a north
breeze drops temps back to normal or a little cooler than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Through the weekend, surface winds will continue to come from the
north as the center of cool high pressure slides southward across
the plains. Zonal flow aloft will bring a series of weak
disturbances, resulting in a good deal of cloud cover through the
weekend and perhaps a few light showers, mainly over our southern
counties. Weekend temps will be a little cooler than normal.
Temperatures will rebound Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next
front and chance for showers late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A broken line of showers and storms along a cold front continues
to approach from the west. This activity will move west-to-east
through the area after 06Z and through the early morning. These
storms should weaken as they move through Middle TN, but SHRA is
at least likely at each TAF site. Ceilings will also lower with
widespread MVFR to IFR conditions likely tonight with improvement
not expected until closer to 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      72  51  68  48 /  30  10  10  20
Clarksville    69  47  66  45 /  10  10  10  20
Crossville     70  47  64  43 /  60  10  10  20
Columbia       72  49  66  45 /  20  10  20  30
Cookeville     69  49  63  45 /  50  10  10  20
Jamestown      70  46  63  42 /  60  10  10  20
Lawrenceburg   72  51  66  47 /  30  10  20  30
Murfreesboro   72  49  67  46 /  30  10  10  30
Waverly        68  48  65  45 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Clements