598
FXUS64 KOHX 051115
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
615 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Most of the earlier convection has either dissipated or exited
Middle Tennessee, and we don`t expect much redevelopment until
this afternoon. A surface boundary sits to our northwest and will
swing across the mid state during the next several hours. This
will enable an upper trough and associated surface low to rotate
through the region later tonight and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

The weather pattern for the upcoming week is a series of troughs
and surface boundaries. So we will keep relatively high PoPs
through Thursday night, with a strong cold front coming through at
that time and hopefully bringing us cooler, drier weather just in
time for the weekend. Of particular interest is Tuesday and
Wednesday, when instability looks to be greatest. If we were to
experience any severe storms this week, it would likely be those
two days. Temperatures will remain above normal through Thursday,
with more seasonal readings returning on Friday and staying put at
least through Sunday. Cumulative QPF values from today through
Friday range from 2-3" most areas, with some spots near the TN/KY
state line potentially looking at 3+ inches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Fog is plaguing most of our Middle TN sites this morning, but this
should clear out by 13-14Z. VFR expected the rest of today until
showers and storms move around 03Z this evening. MVFR cats
expected with them, lasting through the night with additional
showers.

Winds will be light and mainly southwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  66  80  67 /  30  80  80  30
Clarksville    82  64  78  66 /  30  80  80  30
Crossville     79  61  75  61 /  40  60  80  40
Columbia       85  64  80  65 /  20  80  70  30
Cookeville     80  63  77  63 /  40  70  90  40
Jamestown      80  61  76  61 /  50  50  80  50
Lawrenceburg   85  64  80  65 /  20  80  70  30
Murfreesboro   86  64  81  65 /  30  80  70  30
Waverly        85  64  79  66 /  30  80  70  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Rose
LONG TERM....Rose
AVIATION.....Unger