000
FXUS64 KOHX 180155
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
855 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

All is quiet across Middle Tennessee this evening with only some
high clouds in the area. It will be another mild night with lows
in the upper 50s to mid 60s. The area will be dry through the
early afternoon hours on Thursday. Models show the potential for
scattered showers and storms to develop around mid to late
afternoon west of I-65 and lift northeastward. The atmosphere will
be amply unstable with surface base CAPE values exceeding 2000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear values will be moderate with values
between 20-30 kts. With this said, some storms may reach the
severe threshold with damaging winds and large hail as the primary
threats. Tornadoes are not expected with 0-1 and 0-3 SRH around
or below 100 m2/s2.

A line of storms ahead of a cold front will approach the area
after the late afternoon round. The severity of this round of
storms will be somewhat dependent on how widespread the first
wave is. If the afternoon wave is somewhat isolated in coverage,
then the second wave will pose more of a severe threat as it
enters from the northwest. Regardless, the line of storms is
expected to lose some intensity as it continues to move eastward
through the remainder of the overnight hours. Damaging winds will
be the primary threat with the line of storms. Again, low level
shear is on the lower side, so tornadoes are not expected with
this wave.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A line of showers and thunderstorms are progressing E over the
Upper Cumberland. These storms have not produced much other than
some lightning as they have moved through Middle TN. This
morning`s sounding showed a capped atmosphere with poor lapse
rates. This line of storms will continue to move E out of the CWA
by this afternoon. Satellite imagery shows breaks in the clouds
over W TN. In general, cloud cover is expected to decrease through
the afternoon, helping to mix the lowest levels and break the
morning cap. Speaking of this afternoon, the storm threat has
significantly decreased as all the moisture looks to be out of
the area by the time convective indices become more favorable.
Latest CAM`s also support this thinking and keep the CWA dry the
rest of today.

Once cloud cover diminishes, another warm day is expected with
temps climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s. By Thursday, dry
and warm conditions prevail with temperatures back in the mid to
upper 50s. BNA`s record for tomorrow is 88 degrees set back in
1955. Late Thursday night into early Friday morning, a cold front
looks to drop SE from the NW. SPC has Middle TN in a marginal
risk for this timeframe, but the trend for severe storms has been
shifting further W. Exact timing of storms moving through Middle
TN still need to be narrowed down, but at this time, looking like
sometime late Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1013 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The stage will be set for one more round of numerous showers with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms Thursday night through at
least Friday morning. Model soundings here showing some potential
of strong to severe convection across northwestern portions of our
area as Thursday night progresses. Surface high pressure
influences to our northwest will eventually push any remaining
surface frontal systems well to the south by shortly after sunrise
on Saturday with zonal flow aloft and moisture mainly working to
our west and south possibly ushering in some isolated to scattered
showers at times Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon as a
seasonally cool temperatures visit the mid state region. Ridging
influences aloft will finally take hold as Sunday night through
next Tuesday afternoon progresses leading to dry conditions with
seasonal temperatures prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A weak cap in conjunction with weak dynamics will fail to get any
convection going this evening and overnight. The lower levels,
however, are quite moist and fog development late tonight is
likely, particularly across the Plateau. Then, on Thursday, a
strong cold front will approach by evening. In advance of this,
shower and thunderstorm development will commence in th late
afternoon across our western taf areas. For now, VCTS inclusion is
warranted for CKV. Look for activity to pick up in coverage after
the taf period. Some of the storms could be severe near CKV
although the better mid level jet dynamics remains north for the
most part.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      64  87  62  73 /   0  10  90  20
Clarksville    61  85  57  71 /   0  30  90  10
Crossville     57  82  60  70 /   0   0  80  60
Columbia       63  85  61  73 /   0  30  90  20
Cookeville     60  83  61  69 /   0   0  80  70
Jamestown      58  83  60  69 /   0   0  80  70
Lawrenceburg   63  84  62  73 /   0  20  80  40
Murfreesboro   62  86  62  72 /   0  10  90  30
Waverly        63  86  57  70 /   0  30  90  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Reagan
SHORT TERM...Cravens
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....21