Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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610
FXUS64 KOHX 260805
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
305 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...

A showery day is in store, but after today things are looking
very nice for the weekend and much of next week as well.

3 AM CDT conditions were cloudy with temperatures mainly in the
50s. Light rain was falling across MS and West TN, and this rain
will spread across the southwest half of Mid Tn by 6 AM, and
across most of the Mid State by 8 AM. Low pressure over the Mid
South was responsible for the rain, and this low will move east
across north Alabama today. The greater rainfall amounts will be
closer to the low pressure, with one quarter to half inch south of
I-40. Some spots along the Alabama border could have a few
rumbles of thunder and localized 1 inch totals. Fortunately, no
flooding or severe storms are expected. Locations along and north
of I-40 will have lighter showers and more breaks in the rainfall
through the day. Amounts for the north will be less than one
quarter inch. CLoudy skies and showers will limit high
temperatures to mainly lower 60s.

The rain showers will move off to the east this evening and
partial clearing will occur overnight. Lows will drop off to the
40s.

Friday should be a pretty good day, but a stray shower or 2 cannot
be ruled out with a weak impulse crossing the region and creating
some instability in the afternoon. 20 pops have been added for
this potential. Highs are expected to reach around 70. Friday
night will be clear with lows in the 40s.

For this weekend, we continue to expect excellent wx for outdoor
activities. However, there are a couple of considerations as
models have trended a little cooler. On Saturday, a weak cold
front will move through the area during the morning. This front
will be dry, but somewhat breezy northwest winds will follow, with
gusts near 20 mph through the day. Otherwise, it will be sunny
with highs in the mid 60s to around 70.

The wind will settle down Saturday night under clear skies. This
will create another minor issue for an otherwise lovely weekend-
possible frost. It looks like the Upper Cumberland Region will be
the main area for patchy frost late Saturday night into Sunday
morning with lows in the mid to upper 30s. Sheltered and low lying
areas across the rest of Mid Tn could have a touch of frost as
well.

On Sunday, after a chilly start, sunny skies will help
temperatures recover at least 25 degrees from the morning lows.
Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 60s.

Looking ahead to Monday through Wednesday, a developing upper
level ridge will bring much warmer temperatures. Highs should
reach well into the 70s to around 80. Lows will be mainly in the
50s. Monday and Tuesday will be rain free. Enough moisture will
return for a small chance of showers Wednesday. It looks like the
next significant chance for showers with an approaching cold front
will hold off until late Thursday or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR cigs will continue into Thursday morning at all airports with
VCSH as light rain approaches from the west. -SHRA expected to
reach BNA/MQY around 10Z, CKV around 12Z, and CSV around 13Z per
latest HRRR model runs. Low level dry air look to keep cigs/vis in
VFR category after rain arrives until late Thursday
morning/afternoon when low levels saturate. Light and variable
winds tonight will become northeast to east on Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      63  46  71  48  70 /  80  10  20   0   0
Clarksville    65  45  71  45  67 /  60   0  20   0   0
Crossville     59  45  65  45  65 /  90  40  20   0   0
Columbia       62  45  70  47  71 / 100  10  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   62  45  70  46  71 / 100  10  20   0   0
Waverly        63  45  71  46  70 /  90  10  20   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........Shamburger



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