-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
668
FXUS61 KOKX 092352
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
752 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak waves of low pressure move across the northeast
tonight through the weekend. High pressure returns on Monday
before moving offshore into Tuesday. Another low may impact the
region during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Forecast remains on track this evening. Have adjusted PoPs down
a bit for the first portion of the evening as lingering low
level dry air will slow the progression of the rain reaching the
ground. The low levels will moisten as moisture advection
increases after 00z.

Low pressure will travel along a stalled frontal boundary to our
south tonight. Rain should become widespread overnight. The rain
may be briefly moderate at times. Rainfall amounts through early
Friday morning may average around one quarter to one third of an
inch. Temperatures should average closer to normal with lows in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Cloudy skies with periods of light rain continuing, especially
during the morning. There are some models hinting at some drier
conditions possibly by afternoon, however with enough low level
moisture in place, even if the steady rain comes to an end, we
will probably be left with a light mist or drizzle. Overall,
still looking at a damp and unsettled day. The cloudy skies and
continued easterly flow will keep temperatures in the 50s.

The last wave of low pressure passes further south and east
Friday night. Winds become more northeasterly to northerly with
some drying starting to take place. Any rain will become more
intermittent, and eventually after midnight, start coming to an
end. Total rainfall amounts will total up to a half inch or so
for much of the area, with lesser amounts further northeast. NW
sections of Orange County may receive up to 3/4 of an inch.
Temperatures should be near normal with middle 40s to around 50
for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*Key Points*

*Unsettled conditions will continue this weekend. While not a
washout, a few showers are possible, especially Saturday evening
into Sunday.

*Dry conditions currently expected Monday with high pressure nearby.

*Another low may impact the region Tuesday into the middle of the
week, but timing, track, and amplitude are all uncertain at this
time.

*Cool temperatures this weekend should trend close to seasonable
levels next week.

A broad upper level trough/upper low will continue to reside
over eastern North America this weekend. One shortwave will pass
to our east Saturday morning which should leave behind a brief
period of subsidence. Another shortwave quickly follows late
Saturday night Sunday. Low pressure may pass offshore ahead of
the shortwave with another weaker low hanging back over the
northeast. There is some question surrounding how much surface
ridging lingers over New England, which may keep higher
probabilities of showers across the western half of the area.
The atmosphere is stable so will just mention showers. Highs
both days will only be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

There is good agreement among the deterministic and ensemble
guidance for the trough to shift offshore Monday. A relatively
flat ridge should settle over the northeast Monday, but may also
linger into a portion of Tuesday. Uncertainty increases for the
rest of the period as a southern stream shortwave moves out of
the Plains Tuesday and tracks towards the east coast the middle
of next week. An associated frontal system/low pressure should
evolve somewhere near the Middle Atlantic or northeast, but the
modeling has disagreed in the last several cycles. Feel the NBM
PoPs are too aggressive this far out with the degree of
uncertainty and with the potential that some of the system may
be triggered by ongoing convection, which is usually not
resolved well. Will hold PoPs at chance late Tuesday into
Thursday. It is unlikely this period will be a complete washout.
We should be able to refine the timing of precip, if any, in
the coming days as the models become better resolved.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Low pressure passes to our south as it travels east tonight
through Friday.

VFR to start, eventually lowering to IFR late tonight, then
improving to MVFR by around noontime Friday and back to VFR
late day into early evening. Rain/showers from after midnight
through much of Friday with the steadiest being during the
morning push.

East to NE winds increase to around 15kt with gusts 20-25kt.
Winds back more NE late Friday/Friday evening and diminish.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of lowering categories may be off by 1-2 hours, and a
chance that cigs remain above IFR.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday night: Improving to VFR by midnight.

Saturday and Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in showers.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Isolated showers possible at KSWF.

Tuesday: VFR. SW G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
An easterly flow is expected to increase on the area waters
tonight. Small craft wind gusts develop on the ocean and NY
Harbor with more marginal small craft gusts which may be more
occasional for the remaining non-ocean waters for tonight. By
Friday the winds are forecast to slowly diminish as they
gradually back more to the NE and N into Friday night. Seas are
also expected to increase to 5-6 ft. Small crafts are expected
for the western and central ocean zones through Friday night for
lingering seas. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels
this weekend through early next week. Winds may increase Tuesday
towards 20 kt, but think they remain below 25 kt at the present
time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns throughout the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Astronomical tides continue to run high from the new moon
earlier this week. A persistent E flow will also aid in keeping
water levels high.

Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding, with localized
moderate flooding is possible for the more vulnerable spots of
southern Nassau, with advisories spread along the northwestern
and much of the southwestern LI Sound coastal zones. Advisories
are also in effect for this evening/night for Southern Queens,
Southern Brooklyn, Staten Island, and Hudson in NE NJ.
Statements for tonight have also been issued for SW and SE
Mainly MVFR with showers possible. ENE G20kt.Suffolk as some
spots may touch minor benchmarks.

Another round of mainly minor coastal flooding is likely for
the Friday night high tide cycle. Given the persistence of the
forecast, E flow, and only slight decrease in astronomical tide
levels, have issued additional statements and advisories. An
advisory is now in effect for the south shore back bays, lower
NY Harbor, and western Sound along the SW CT and Westchester
coast. Statements have been issued for southern Suffolk, NW
Suffolk, N Nassau, and N Queens.

E flow continues into Saturday, but astronomical tide levels
begin to fall. The most vulnerable locations of the south shore
back bays could see another round of minor flooding with the
Saturday night high tide. Most other locations may just touch or
fall short.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Friday for CTZ009.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for CTZ009.
NY...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT
     Friday for NYZ071-078.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight Friday night to 4 AM EDT
     Saturday for NYZ071.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ074-
     075-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday
     for NYZ074-075-178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for NYZ176-177.
NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NJZ006-
     106-108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday
     for NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for ANZ338-350.
     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/DS
NEAR TERM...BC/DS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DS
HYDROLOGY...BC/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...