Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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548 FXUS61 KOKX 231921 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 321 PM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure will build toward the region through Thursday, then remain through Saturday. A cold front pushes south of the area and remains nearly stationary through Memorial Day. Another cold front follows on Tuesday with high pressure building in behind.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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An upper level trough exits the northeast as heights rise across the region tonight as a high pressure builds into the region. Expect mostly clear skies and light winds tonight. Overnight lows will fall into the 50s and lower 60s. A MAV/MET/ECS blend for overnight low were used.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Surface high pressure builds into the region on Thursday, then remains in place through Friday. Expect mostly sunny skies both Thursday and Friday, with mostly clear skies Thursday night. Temperatures on Thursday will climb into the 70s and lower 80s, temperatures on Friday will be warmer with highs in the upper 70s and 80s. The only exception will be right along the immediate coastline, where temperatures will hold in the lower 70s. Thursday night, lows fall into the 50s and lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Anchored high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast will lead to a continued southwest flow ushering in a more humid airmass on Saturday. Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s under a mostly sunny sky. Temperatures in and around NYC may even hit the 90 degree mark. South facing shores of Long Island and CT will be about 5-10 degrees cooler due to the southerly flow off the water. Sunday becomes more complex as a cold front gets pushed to the south as northern stream high pressure moves into eastern Canada. The front may remain south of the area into Memorial Day which will keep an unsettled pattern in place. However, it should be noted there is still a large amount of uncertainty on whether the front retreats back into the area or remains to the south. The placement of the front will ultimately determine temperatures and the rain threat Sunday into Memorial Day. Have kept chance PoPs in the forecast through Monday afternoon. Easterly flow will keep clouds and cooler temperatures in the forecast with highs on Sunday and Monday only in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Another cold front is expected to swing through on Tuesday with Canadian high pressure following behind it. Temperatures return to near seasonable to a few degrees above.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A cold front continues to move south of Long Island into tonight with high pressure building in its place. VFR conditions are expected with a decrease in clouds this afternoon into tonight. CT terminals have SW going to W flow into this evening near 10 kt while rest of terminals will have a NW-N flow 10-15 kt. Winds will be gusting at times to near 20 kt. Gusts subside early this evening with winds becoming NW and decreasing below 10 kt tonight. Winds become more northerly 5-10 kt Thursday with sea breezes developing Thursday afternoon. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Gust end time could be an hour off. Gusts could be intermittent. KLGA TAF Comments: Gust end time could be an hour off. Gusts could be intermittent. KEWR TAF Comments: Gust end time could be an hour off. Gusts could be intermittent. KTEB TAF Comments: Gust end time could be an hour off. Gusts could be intermittent. KHPN TAF Comments: Gust end time could be an hour off. Gusts could be intermittent. KISP TAF Comments: Gust end time could be an hour off. Gusts could be intermittent. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday afternoon-Thursday night...VFR. Sea breezes developing. .Friday...VFR. SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through early evening. .Saturday...Mainly VFR. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms near NYC Metro terminals and to the N and W starting in the afternoon with possible MVFR. Higher chance of showers and thunderstorms at night. .Sunday-Monday...MVFR or lower at times with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise VFR.
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&& .MARINE...
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High pressure will build toward the waters today through Friday. With a weak pressure gradient across the forecast waters, winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory levels. The tranquil conditions on the area waters will continue through Tuesday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No hydrologic impacts are expected through Friday. No hydrologic impacts are expected through Saturday. While there remains uncertainty for Sunday into early next week, there is potential for 1/2 inch of rainfall from Sunday through Tuesday morning.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CB/BC NEAR TERM...BC SHORT TERM...BC LONG TERM...CB AVIATION...JM MARINE...CB/BC HYDROLOGY...CB/BC EQUIPMENT...

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