Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 201939 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 339 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds behind a cold front tonight and into Monday. A weak frontal system affects the area from late Monday night into Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday and remains through Saturday. The next weather system will move across the region on Sunday.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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Sct showers and iso tstms developing along a cold front will push east through late this afternoon. With marginally strong deep layer shear, a conditional isolated strong thunderstorm with strong wind gust is possible. Expectation is for convection to weaken as it moves eastward towards the coast in the late aft/eve due to maritime influence. Clearing conditions expected tonight as high pressure builds across the region. Temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 50s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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Sunny conditions Monday as high pressure builds across the region with a weak frontal system impacting the area late Monday night. This will result in some precipitation across the region with light QPF values. Highs on Monday will generally be in the mid to upper 70s, except lower 70s across south coasts with afternoon seabreeze development. Temperatures Monday night will be in the mid to upper 50s.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A weak frontal system will impacting the area Tuesday through early Wednesday. There are some small timing differences with the global models with both the onset of warm advection rain and the possibility of scattered convection lingering into Wednesday as the airmass change behind a cold front is subtle. This does not look to be a significant rainfall event. Additionally, while the westerlies and an upper trough will remain across the area through midweek, the instability at this time looks to be only marginal. High pressure builds across the area on Thursday and remains through Saturday, resulting in dry weather with above normal temperatures. A frontal system is then forecast to impact the region Saturday night into Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 70s.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A cold front passes through the terminals 22-00Z today. VFR through the TAF period. Brief MVFR conds in an iso/sct shower still possible before 22-00Z and and iso TSTM is possible before this time as well. W winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to around 20 kt becomes NW behind the cold front with winds diminishing tonight. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... .Monday PM...VFR with light s winds. .Tuesday...VFR AM, -shra/MVFR PM with low chc TSTM. .Wednesday...CHC -shra/MVFR early, then VFR. .Thurs-Fri...VFR. && .MARINE...
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Marginal SCA conditions are expected across the coastal ocean waters into tonight, with sub small craft conditions expected elsewhere. A weak gradient is expected through the week, keeping all waters below Small Craft Advisory levels.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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No widespread significant hydrologic issues are anticipated through the next 7 days.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353-355. && $$

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