Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 220950 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 550 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will approach this morning and lift through the area late this afternoon or during the evening. A cold front follows late tonight into Wednesday morning. High pressure returns behind the frontal passage and remains through Saturday. Another frontal system impacts the area on Sunday and Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Forecast updated to increase and expand PoPs associated with line moving through eastern PA as of 09z. Convection had been decreasing as it moves into a more stable airmass so have not included thunder. Latest HRRR indicating light pcpn filling in behind this initial line, so no changes aft 13z. A shortwave trough will track through the Great Lakes today with its associated sfc low arriving in western NY state this evening. Onset of rain is slightly slower than 24 hours ago, especially the NAM and CMCReg which hold any pcpn off in NYC until late this aftn. Hi-res models including the HRRR, 3km NAM, and all members of SPC`s HREF bring showers in this morning (aft 12z) from W to E. Have compromised on the timing, although leaned towards the latter (faster) solutions. Otherwise, an overrunning pattern strengthens this morning with additional showers overspreading the area. Marginal elevated instability develops late this aftn N and W and have adjusted timing of thunder in the grids to confine it mainly to Orange County late.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Warm front lifts into the area this eve, but may struggle to lift through until parent low pressure traversing northern New England drags it through. There is also the possibility that it doesn`t completely clear the local area before the cold front catches up to it tonight. Showers continue this eve, but should become more sct in nature on the south side of the warm front and also as the cold front moves through. Marginal elevated instability overnight will allow for the possibility of a few rumbles of thunder. This could result in a few isold storms with moderate to heavy rain, especially this eve as PWATS max out between 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Have also added fog into the forecast with the approach/passing of the warm front and light winds tonight. Cold front tracks across the area late tonight and pushes south of the area Wed morning. A stray shower is possibly from NYC and points east Wed morning with the front nearby. Skies will clear Wed morning with a thermal trough developing and seabreezes likely Wed aftn as high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes. Dry weather and above normal temps are expected Wed and Thu. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The cold front will be moving east of the tri-state area Wednesday morning, with still a low chance of a shower mainly SE of the Lower Hudson Valley. Cold air advection behind the front will be weak, and with a mostly sunny afternoon, high temperatures will be above normal with most areas ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s. High pressure then passes through the region on Thursday and remains in control on Friday. Dry weather continues both days with highs a couple degrees above normal on Thursday, and then warming up even more on Friday. There remains some uncertainty for the holiday weekend as global models and ensembles disagree on the surface features that would impact our weather. Have gone closer to WPC/ECMWF depiction of a cold front dropping down from the north on Saturday and perhaps stalling over us at some point on Sunday, remaining in the vicinity into Monday. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will be present all 3 days, but for now have the overall lowest chances during Saturday. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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High pressure moves off the coast of New England as a warm front and wave of low pressure approach through this morning. The warm front will be in the vicinity through this afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west. The warm front may move through the coastal terminals this evening before a cold front tracks through the region tonight. VFR with showers developing west to east late this morning into this afternoon. Conditions lower to MVFR mid to late afternoon, then to IFR this evening as the warm front moves into the area. An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out late this afternoon at KSWF, and then across the area this evening. Winds will be light, under 10 KT, from the S to SW, at the metro terminals, and light and variable across the outlying terminals. Winds become E-ESE 5 to 10 KT during today. ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: MVFR conditions may develop as early as 18Z. Winds could be NE under 10 KT for a few hours this afternoon. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: MVFR conditions may develop as early as 18Z. Winds could be NE under 10 KT for a few hours this afternoon. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: MVFR conditions may develop as early as 17Z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is YELLOW, which implies slant range visibility 4-6SM outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: MVFR conditions may develop as early as 17Z. KHPN TAF Comments: Conditions lower to IFR by 21Z, however, there may be a few hours prior to that that ceilings are MVFR. KISP TAF Comments: Conditions lower to IFR by 22Z, maybe a hour or two earlier. Also, there may be a few hours prior to that that ceilings are low end MVFR, 1000-1500 FT. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Late Tuesday night...IFR in showers, isolated thunderstorms. .Wednesday...Isolated showers in the morning, with MVFR conditions. Then becoming VFR. .Thursday...VFR. .Friday...VFR. SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt through early evening. .Saturday...VFR. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms possible N and W of the metro terminals.
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&& .MARINE... A weak pressure gradient force will remain across the forecast waters through the week as a frontal system tracks through the region today into Wednesday. Then high pressure builds over the waters through the end of the week. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through the end of the week. There is a low chance of small craft conditions for Friday into Saturday when there could be gusts close to 25 KT and seas on the coastal ocean waters build close to 5 FT. && .HYDROLOGY... Between 1/4 and 1/2 of basin avg QPF is expected today into Wednesday. Other than some possibly isolated nuisance ponding with any locally heavy rain from thunderstorms late this aftn/evening, no significant hydrologic impacts are expected through the week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$

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