Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 200815 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 415 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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Deepening low pressure lifts north through the Canadian Maritimes today, while high pressure builds in gradually from the west through early next week. A coastal low will likely affect the region the middle of next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Closed upper low and associated coastal low lift north through the Canadian Maritimes today, with weak backside shortwave and surface trough moving through the region late today. Cyclonic flow will make for a breezy (NW gusts 20 to 30 mph) and cool day, with sct afternoon cloud cover. Despite deep mixing, 850 hpa temps of around -5 c will keep temps in the lower to mid 50s. A good 10 degrees below seasonable.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
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Deep closed low continues to lift north along the Eastern Canadian seaboard, with mean troughing continuing over the NE US in its wake. At the surface, high pressure builds into the region from the west. Although a weak backside shortwave will have a surface trough moving through the region in the afternoon. Clear and chilly conditions tonight, with areas of frost across outlying areas where temps radiatively cool to the upper 20s to lower 30s. Elsewhere lows generally in the mid 30s. Continued W/NW flow on Saturday, but weaker than today. A gradual moderation in airmass and deep mixing should allow temps to rise into the mid to upper 50s. Mostly sunny skies expected, with just few-sct afternoon CU with shortwave/trough passage.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The northern branch of the upper level jet will be near to just south of the region late this weekend and then will be moving north of the region for Monday. The southern branch of the upper level jet getting enhanced by an upper level trough near the Gulf early next week will be approaching the region towards midweek along with the upper level trough. The southern branch shows some phasing northeast of the region going into next Thursday with the rest of the southern branch staying south and west of the region. At the surface, a large area of high pressure and its subsidence will keep minimal clouds late this weekend. The high will move offshore late Monday through Tuesday. During this timeframe, the airmass will moderate as winds will be lighter due to a weak pressure gradient. Towards the middle of next week, particularly starting Tuesday night is when rain chances return to the forecast. This will be as a low pressure system approaches from the Southeast coast. The low center itself, appearing in the models as a triple point, moves across late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Then this low will move north to northeast of the region Thursday. Its magnitude remains rather weak so not much of an increase in pressure gradient is expected. Winds will not increase that much as a result. One feature to note though will be the significant precipitable water. There is some model indication that this parameter will reach 1 to 1.25 inch Wednesday. This happens to be when most model precipitation is forecast as well, coinciding with the most vertical lift. There is a chance there could be some heavy rain at times as the precipitable water value will be approaching or even exceeding the 90th percentile for that time of year according to OKX precipitable water sounding climatology. The rain will be likely Wednesday into Wednesday evening, with chances of rain remaining into Thursday as well with the upper level trough to the west of the region.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A series of weak troughs of low pressure cross the area through this afternoon. High pressure then builds in from the west into tonight. VFR through the TAF period. WNW-NW winds G20-25KT early this morning, except no gusts/only occasional gusts KEWR/KISP/KBDR/KSWF/KGON. Winds become NW15-20KT throughout and gust to around 25-30KT by around midday. Wind gusts abate this evening, with speeds decreasing to around 10KT. Except for at KEWR through 12Z, moderate to high confidence in winds to the right of 300 True through the TAF period. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Late tonight-Tuesday...VFR. NW-N winds G15-20KT possible Saturday night. && .MARINE...
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SCA NW winds and ocean seas this morning, transitioning to mainly nearshore NW SCA gusts this afternoon. Marginal NW SCA gusts possible to re-develop on the ocean waters this evening in wake of weak frontal passage. Thereafter, winds relent below SCA tonight as high pressure builds towards the waters. Expecting a quiet period with sub-SCA conditions this weekend through next Tuesday with high pressure in control and a weak pressure gradient. Next Tuesday night is when there is expected to be a return to SCA conditions for the ocean with southeasterly fetch building ocean seas to 3 to 5 feet as the high moves farther offshore and low pressure along the Southeast coast approaches.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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The combination of gusty NW winds of 20 to 30 mph, and min rh values falling to around 30 percent, may create an enhanced threat of brush fire spread amidst fine fuels (upright grasses and reeds) today. The limiting factor will be 1 to 2 tenths of an inch of rain yesterday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Dry conditions are expected through early next week, with water levels for area rivers and streams gradually falling. A widespread rainfall is expected for the middle of next week with the possibility of occasional heavy rain. Predictability is low on rain amounts and hydologic impacts at this time.
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&& .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ330- 335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JM/NV NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...Maloit MARINE...JM/NV FIRE WEATHER... HYDROLOGY...JM/NV EQUIPMENT...

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