Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 241807 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 207 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level disturbance moves through the region tonight into Sunday. High pressure builds down from southeastern Canada Sunday night through Monday night, then remains anchored along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States into the middle of next week. This high then slowly slides offshore, as a slow moving cold front approaches from the west through Thursday night. The cold front then crosses the area on Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The region continues to lie be in between two shortwaves this afternoon, one sitting along the eastern New England coast, and the next one rotating down from Western Quebec late today into tonight. FEW-SCT instability cu expected this afternoon across western portions of the tri-state, while much of CT and E LI continue to see BKN conditions with greater influence of cold pool instability. Isolated sprinkles/rain showers developing across hills of southern New England this afternoon will continue to drift S across E CT and E LI into early eve. Temps should remain near to slightly few degrees below normal, mainly in the upper 40s to around 50. Although temps will likely fall into the lower to mid 40s across E CT and possibly E LI through the afternoon with increasing cloud cover and any evap cooling. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... The main axis of the eastern trough pushes south into the region by late tonight, then to the south of the area Sunday morning, followed by a secondary trough axis Sunday afternoon. Associated forcing warrants pops for isolated-scattered snow showers late tonight, scattered snow showers Sunday morning, then isolated-scattered rain and snow showers Sunday afternoon. Generally any accumulation should be very light, only a few tenths of an inch. However cannot completely rule out an isolated convective burst of snow producing localized amounts of around 1 inch. Also, given the steep low level lapse rates, cannot rule out graupel or strong gusty winds from any stronger shower as well. Lows tonight should be from a few to around 5 degrees below normal. Highs on Sunday should run around 10 degrees below normal. Gusty NE winds will cause wind chills around 30 Sunday afternoon as well. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Deep layered ridging builds in Sunday night-Tuesday. Other than maybe some lingering snow showers over far eastern zones early Sunday evening, it should be dry Sunday night-Tuesday. Other than decreasing clouds Sunday night, it should be mainly clear through Tuesday as well. Temperatures will run around 10 degrees below normal Sunday night-Monday night and around 5 degrees below normal on Tuesday. The ridge axis slowly slides offshore Tuesday night and Wednesday as a northern stream trough builds into SE Canada, flattening the top of the ridge. At a minimum will see an increase in cloud cover starting Tuesday night. There is some question in how far east precipitation pushes on Wednesday. For now have limited pops to slight chance over the western 1/5 of the CWA. Could possibly some snow mixed with any rain that does occur Wednesday morning. Ridging then builds in from the S, with a return of the Bahamas ridge featured early in winter. This will help keep at bay a full latitude that slowly slides from the Plains Wednesday night to the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, since the area will be on the NW periphery of this ridge, it will be subject to the influence of shortwaves running ahead of the main trough. These shortwaves could bring isolated-scattered showers to the region from Wednesday night-Friday, with the best chance Thursday night and Friday. Temperatures Tuesday night-Friday should run near to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds into the region today. A cold front will pass through from the north tonight. NW-NNW winds 10-15KT could drop off by a few kt early this evening then increase back a few KT later tonight while veering N. NNE-NE winds 10-15KT expected for Sun with gusts 20-25KT. VFR. Chc -shra at KGON this aftn, otherwise low chances of -shsn for with in a 4 to 5 hour period late tonight/Sunday morning starting near 07z at KGON and progressing westward to the city area terminals near 11-12z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday...VFR. NNE-NE winds G20-25KT. .Monday...VFR. NE winds 10KT. .Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday...VFR. .Thursday...Mainly VFR, chc MVFR in -shra. && .MARINE... Sub SCA conditions today, then strengthening N/NE flow tonight in wake of a cold front. SCA conds expected to developing on the ocean waters and possibly eastern nearshore waters Sunday morning. These conditions will likely continue into Mon. The SCA may need to be extended through Mon. The prolonged NE flow will keep seas at or above 5ft on the ocean through at least Wed. It is possible that seas stay at SCA levels for the rest of the week. && .HYDROLOGY... Rapid snow melt will continue into the weekend as high temps climb into the 40s. No hydrologic problems are anticipated through Thursday. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) is off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ330-340-345-350-353-355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Maloit NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...Maloit LONG TERM...Maloit AVIATION...JC MARINE...JMC/Maloit HYDROLOGY...Maloit EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.