Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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253
FXUS61 KOKX 211027
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
627 AM EDT Mon May 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region today and moves off the
southern New England coast tonight. A warm front will lift
through Tuesday afternoon followed by a cold front late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. High pressure returns behind the
frontal passage and remains through Saturday. Another frontal
system impacts the area on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Ridging builds into the area today providing mostly sunny and
warm weather. Light northerly winds will give way an afternoon
seabreezes at the coast. Highs will generally range between mid
and upper 70s, although a few 80 degree readings will be
possible in metro NY/NJ. Humidity levels will be much lower
than yesterday, making it more comfortable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper ridge axis shifts to the east tonight as a shortwave
trough over the Midwest approaches. Guidance is in good
agreement that pcpn hold off until aft 12z Tue except perhaps in
Orange county. Overrunning pattern strengthens as the day
progresses and a warm front lifts into the area. Model soundings
are indicating some weak elevated instability late Tue aftn
through Tue eve, in addition to increasing PWATS (maxing out
between 1.50 and 1.75 inches). Any tstms that develop have the
potential to produce a period of moderate to heavy rainfall.
Warm front should lift through the area during the aftn and
early eve as parent low tracks through New England, followed by
a cold front Tue night into Wed morning. High temps are tricky
on Tue and will depend on timing of the warm fropa.

High pres returns behind the cold front with dry weather and a
return to above normal temps on Wed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure builds across the area Wednesday night and
remains through Saturday, resulting in dry weather with above
normal temperatures. A frontal system is then forecast to impact
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be
in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes into this evening,
then moves off the NJ coast tonight.

VFR through the TAF period.

A light north flow early this morning will become light and
variable. Seabreeze conditions develop late this morning into this
afternoon at all terminals, except at KSWF, where a light WSW flow
is forecast. Winds become light and variable this evening.

   ...NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support...

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

KJFK TAF Comments: A sea breeze may develop as early as 15Z.

The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KLGA TAF Comments: A seas breeze may move through the terminal as
early 17Z.

The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KEWR TAF Comments: A sea breeze may move through as early as 17Z.

The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN, which implies
slant range visibility P6SM outside of cloud.

KTEB TAF Comments: A sea breeze may move through as early as 17Z.

KHPN TAF Comments: A weak sea breeze may move through as early as
16Z.

KISP TAF Comments:  A seas breeze may move through the terminal as
early 17Z.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
.Late Monday night-Tuesday morning...VFR.
.Tuesday afternoon/night...MVFR in any showers, otherwise VFR.
An isolated thunderstorm is also possible. S winds G15-20KT
possible Tuesday afternoon.
.Wednesday-Friday...VFR. NW-N winds G15-25KT possible
Wednesday-Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure was building into the forecast waters from the west
and a light northerly flow was across the waters. Ocean seas east of
Fire Island Inlet have subsided to below 5 feet, so the SCA was
cancelled.

A weak surface pressure gradient force will continue into late in
the week. The forecast waters will remain below SCA levels through
Friday.

With an increasing southwesterly flow Friday into Saturday, ocean
seas may build to 5 feet or more late Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Between 1/4 and 1/2 of basin avg QPF is expected with the
frontal system Tue into Wed. Other than some isolated nuisance
ponding with any heavy rain from tstms late Tue aftn/eve, no
hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$



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