Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 200746 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 346 AM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
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A cold front slowly crosses the area today. High pressure will briefly build into the region tonight and Monday, before a weak frontal system affects the area from late Monday night into Wednesday. High pressure returns to close out the week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Weak shortwave axis crosses the region this morning, with another weak shortwave approaching late in the day. Meanwhile a stronger northern stream shortwave passes through Quebec today. At the surface, a weak cold front slowly passes through the region this aft/eve. Areas of fog, locally dense, should gradually improve through the early morning hours as SW winds begin to pick up. A few showers are possible as the vort axis moves through this morning, then subsidence in wake of the morning vort axis should allow for some breaks of sun from w to e late this morning into the afternoon. Sct showers and iso tstms are expected to develop along the cold front, to the NW of the NYC metro, in a marginally unstable airmass early this afternoon. This activity should traverse eastward through through the afternoon. Some uncertainty on extent of convective coverage with subsidence in wake of morning convection and late approach of next piece of shortwave energy. An isolated strong thunderstorm, with strong wind gusts, is possible with potential for pockets of higher instability and marginally strong shear profiles. Expectation is for convection to weaken as it moves eastward towards the coast in the late aft/eve due to maritime influence. Temperatures today will be above seasonable, well into the 70s, except lower 80s for NYC/NJ metro.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
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A couple of shortwaves move east through Quebec tonight, with zonal upper flow developing across the region into Monday. At the surface, high pressure builds into the region through Monday. Clearing conditions expected tonight, with mostly sunny conditions on Sunday. Temps tonight will be near seasonable, with highs on Monday a few degrees above seasonable levels. Highs generally in the mid to upper 70s, except lower 70s across south coasts with afternoon seabreeze development.
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&& .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upcoming week looks to be relatively benign with a weak frontal system impacting the area late Monday night into early Wednesday. There are some small timing differences with the global models with both the onset of warm advection rain Monday night and the possibility of scattered convection lingering into Wednesday as the airmass change behind a cold front is subtle. This does not look to be a significant rainfall event. Additionally, while the westerlies and an upper trough will remain across the area through midweek, the instability at this time looks to be only marginal. The second half of the week will feature building heights aloft as the trough works offshore, resulting in dry weather and above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A cold front approaches from the west overnight, then crosses the area today. IFR-VLIFR into the overnight hours. Conditions improve to MVFR during the morning for western terminals, and during the afternoon at eastern terminals. All terminals become VFR by late this afternoon/early evening. Light and variable winds, become SSW overnight, with speeds around 10 kt at city terminals, and lower values elsewhere. LLWS for all but KSWF overnight as well. LLWS lingers at KGON into the morning hours. Winds veer to the WSW to W in the afternoon then to NW by late afternoon/early evening at western terminals. Could have gusts 15-20kt from early afternoon into early evening at western terminals as well. At eastern terminals winds do not veer to the WSW-W until mid-late afternoon and to NW until early this evening. Gusts to around 15-20 kt possible KBDR/KISP mid-late this afternoon as well. .OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sunday night-Monday night...VFR. .Monday...Vfr with light s winds. .Tuesday-Wednesday...Most likely VFR with low chance of MVFR in any shower. S winds G15-20kt possible Tuesday afternoon. .Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. N-NW winds G15-20KT possible. && .MARINE...
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Dense fog should improve across western waters through daybreak, but may take until mid to late morning across Eastern ocean and nearshore waters with moist sw flow over cool waters. Marginal SCA conditions are expected across the coastal ocean waters into tonight, with sub small craft conditions expected elsewhere. A weak gradient is expected Monday through Wednesday, keeping all waters below Small Craft Advisory levels.
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&& .HYDROLOGY... No widespread significant hydrologic issues are anticipated through early next week. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ335-338. Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ330-340- 345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350- 353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...NV/DW NEAR TERM...NV SHORT TERM...NV LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...12 MARINE...NV/DW HYDROLOGY...Fig/NV/DW

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