Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 190006 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 806 PM EDT Wed Jul 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Great Lakes builds east across the area through Thursday and then slides offshore on Friday. Low pressure and an approaching frontal system are forecast to impact the area during the weekend and into early next week with unsettled weather. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
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Forecast on track with no significant changes to the forecast. Upper trough axis over eastern Canada and the Northeast moves offshore toward daybreak Thursday with riding both aloft and at the surface building in from the Great Lakes. A weak surface trough across eastern Long Island and southeast CT early this evening may briefly result in an onshore flow, otherwise high pressure builds in from the Great Lakes with northerly winds overnight. It will be comfortable with temperatures near seasonable levels and dew points in the 50s. There remains a moderate risk of rip currents through this evening at the ocean beaches due to a 3 to 4 ft southeast swell maintaining waves around 3 ft in the surf zone.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Seasonable and comfortable conditions will be featured Thursday into Thursday night with high pressure both aloft and at the surface building across the region. Northerly winds in the morning become onshore by afternoon as winds veer around to the S-SE. Highs and lows will both be near or just below seasonable levels. Humidity levels will gradually creep up Thursday night. There is a moderate risk of rip current development at the ocean beaches on Thursday due to residual 2 to 3 ft S and SE swells. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday as high pressure over the region begins to move offshore. A low pressure system will move up the coast on Saturday resulting in possible showers/thunderstorms late Saturday and into Sunday. Temperatures for the weekend will be slightly below normal with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Thereafter, a low pressure and its associated frontal boundary affects the region for the beginning of the week. With a southerly flow pumping respectable amounts of moisture across the region expect a chance of showers and thunderstorms right into the middle of the week. Temperatures will bounce back to normal levels Monday and remain normal through the middle of the week. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes through Thursday. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. N flow near 10 kts decreases in speed later tonight into early Thursday. The wind becomes more NE Thursday initially with sea breezes developing Thursday afternoon for coastal terminals, making for more SE-S winds at 5-10 kt with more variable directions for inland terminals. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Occasional wind gusts to 15-20 kt possible this evening. KLGA TAF Comments: Occasional wind gusts to 15-20 kt possible this evening. KEWR TAF Comments: Occasional wind gusts to 15-20 kt possible this evening. KTEB TAF Comments: Occasional wind gusts to 15-20 kt possible this evening. KHPN TAF Comments: Occasional wind gusts to 15-20 kt possible this evening. KISP TAF Comments: Occasional wind gusts to 15-20 kt possible this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday night-Friday night...Mainly VFR. MVFR possible late Friday night. .Saturday-Monday...MVFR possible Saturday. Higher chances of MVFR or lower Saturday night and through Monday with chances of showers and thunderstorms.
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&& .MARINE... A tranquil period over the next couple of days as high pressure builds in with winds around 10 kt or less. Ocean wave heights will be mostly 2 to 4 feet. Low pressure and an approaching frontal system will impact the the waters this weekend allowing ocean seas to build to SCA criteria and remain there through the early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Unsettled weather over the weekend and into early next week could result in showers and thunderstorms. Some showers could produce heavy downpours but at this time impacts are uncertain. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/DW NEAR TERM...BC/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...JM MARINE...BC/Fig/DW HYDROLOGY...Fig/DW EQUIPMENT...

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