Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 192229 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 629 PM EDT Sat May 19 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will lift north of the area tonight. A cold front will then pass Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure will briefly build into the region Monday, before a weak frontal system impacts the area late Monday night into early Wednesday. High pressure returns to close out the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
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Very impressive radar image along the eastern seaboard this evening shows showers over 1000 miles in distance, from the Florida Keys, all to way to Maine. A deep tropical feed of moisture rounding the western periphery of western Atlantic ridge will send multiple rounds of showers across the region through the overnight. A few showers may produce brief heavy downpours. As a result, have increased rain chances overnight, mainly from NYC and points east. A warm front lifts north through the area from southwest to northeast tonight. Areas of fog will develop, with possibly some localized dense fog across coastal areas. Temperatures will gradually rise through the 50s and into the 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Light showers expected on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the north and west, then moves through the area Sunday afternoon. Conditions improve late Sunday afternoon behind the front with winds shifting to the northwest bringing drier air across the area for Sunday night. Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with low temperatures Sunday night in the mid to upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The upcoming week looks to be relatively benign with a weak frontal system impacting the area late Monday night into early Wednesday. There are some small timing differences with the global models with both the onset of warm advection rain Monday night and the possibility of scattered convection lingering into Wednesday as the airmass change behind a cold front is subtle. This does not look to be a significant rainfall event. Additionally, while the westerlies and an upper trough will remain across the area through midweek, the instability at this time looks to be only marginal. The second half of the week will feature building heights aloft as the trough works offshore, resulting in dry weather and above normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A warm front approaches and moves through tonight. IFR to VLIFR through tonight with periods of rain. Winds with an easterly component at 10-15kt diminishing this afternoon into early evening. Winds then veer S-SW behind the warm front tonight. Winds at 2000 ft at KISP and KGON SW 40-50KT from approx 06z-09z. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Sun...Becoming vfr in the aftn. Iso/sct shwrs and tstms. NW gusts 20 kt in the aftn. .Mon...Vfr with light s winds. .Tue...Mainly VFR. CHC PM shra/MVFR. .Wed...Mainly VFR. CHC shra/MVFR. .Thu...VFR. && .MARINE... Small craft adv conditions across ocean waters through Sunday evening. Areas of fog are also possible tonight lowering visibility across area waters to less than one mile. A dense fog advisory is in effect tonight into early Sunday. A weak gradient is expected Monday through Wednesday. High pressure builds across the waters Monday followed by a weak frontal Tuesday into Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY...
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Rainfall amounts overnight will average between a tenth and quarter of an inch, but there will localized higher amounts as bands of showers move in from the south. Minor nuisance, urban flood flooding is possible. No widespread hydrologic issues are anticipated through early next week.
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&& .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ330-335-340- 345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/DW NEAR TERM...Fig/DW SHORT TERM...Fig LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JC MARINE...Fig/DW HYDROLOGY...Fig/DW

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