Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS61 KOKX 121527 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1127 AM EDT Thu Jul 12 2018 .SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will build into the Northeast today and then remain through Friday, as a warm front moves into upstate New York. A frontal boundary will dissipate over the region from Friday night into Sunday as the high slowly slides offshore and merges with the Bermuda high early next week. A low pressure trough will approach Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a cold front on Wednesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
An upper level trough will remain across the northeast and into the mid Atlantic region today with weak mid level shortwaves/vort maxima rotating through. One of these may still manage to trigger an isolated shower late this AM in NYC and NE NJ. Once this possibility wanes, expect mostly sunny skies and temps at seasonal averages. A moderate rip current risk continues going into this evening.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The upper level trough will be finally moving offshore this evening and into Friday, with slowly rising heights aloft, as surface high pressure remains. Temps on Friday should be similar to those of today. Swells from departing Tropical Storm Chris will maintain at least a moderate rip current risk.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Leftover swells from Chris and a developing non-tropical ocean low behind it are likely to maintain at east a moderate rip current risk into early next week. The axis of a NE extension of a deep layered ridge remains over the area Friday night, with associated subsidence keeping things dry and cloud cover at a minimum. Lows Friday night should be around normal in the NYC heat island area and a few degrees below normal elsewhere. The axis of the ridge slides to the south on Saturday, as a northern stream shortwave trough moves into western Quebec. This trough then deepens as it tracks east, helping to set up NW flow aloft with shortwaves possibly embedded in the flow by Sunday. As a result, it should be mainly dry on Saturday, with a slight chance pops for showers and thunderstorms into far W Orange County by late Saturday afternoon. Increase pops to slight chance throughout Saturday night, as a northern stream shortwave passes to the north. Sunday should be mainly dry over eastern areas, but western portions of the CWA could see some isolated afternoon convection. Highs Saturday should be up to 5 degrees above normal in the NYC heat island area and near normal elsewhere. Lows Saturday night and highs Sunday should be a few degrees above normal throughout the area. Deep layered ridging builds back into the area Sunday night, with its axis sliding offshore Monday afternoon. As a result Sunday night and Monday morning should be dry, but areas from SW CT and NYC on west could see some isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A shearing shortwave trough approaching the area Monday night, warrants continuing slight chance pops over western zones, with dry conditions expected over Long Island and south central and southeastern CT. An 850-500 hPa trough moves into the Great Lakes and central/southern Appalachians on Tuesday. A shortwave trough ahead of it will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the entire area by Tuesday afternoon. This chance continues Tuesday night as the main 850-500 hPa trough axis moves across the region. With the region being in the right rear quadrant of a 90+ kt 300 hPa Jet, having the core of a 30-35 kt 950-850 hPa low level jet pass near by and from 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE to work with. Have the potential for strong to possibly severe storms Tuesday afternoon/evening as a result. In addition, there is some possibility for precipitable waters of over 2 inches Tuesday afternoon/night so locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Zonal flow sets up over the region Wednesday as the trough exits to the east. There is some uncertainty as to exactly how fast the trough exits, so have slight chance pops in Wednesday morning (chance for most of SE CT). Temperatures for the early to middle part of next week are expected to be above normal.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
FR through the period with high pressure building over the terminals today. NE less than 10 kt this morning. Afternoon SE sea breezes are once again expected to develop. Winds become light and variable once again tonight. A few showers are possible today, however probability of timing and placement of any storms are too low to include in the TAFs at this time. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: Afternoon seabreeze expected around 17Z. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: Afternoon seabreeze expected around 20Z. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: Afternoon seabreeze expected around 20Z. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is GREEN...which implies slant range visibility 7SM or greater outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KISP TAF Comments: Afternoon seabreeze expected around 17Z. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Friday...VFR. .Saturday...Slight chance of a late day/evening tstm, otherwise VFR. .Sunday-Monday...VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Swells from departing TS Chris are remaining below 5 ft, so the SCA for hazardous seas out east has been cancelled. A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters around Long Island should limit winds to around 10 kt or less through Mon with the exception of the sea breeze Saturday afternoon/eve, when sustained winds 15 kt may be possible, with gusts up to 20 kt in the NY Bight. Swells are expected to be 3 ft or less.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .HYDROLOGY... No significant hydrologic impacts are expected from today through Tuesday morning. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with any stronger convection Tuesday afternoon and night. While it is too far out to get too specific on any impacts, there is some potential for at least minor flooding towards the middle of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
Astronomical tides are running high due to the approach of a new moon this evening. In addition south to southeast swells generated by distant TS Chris were adding to tidal departures. Minor coastal flooding will be likely once again this evening along the bays of southern Queens and southern Nassau counties with the high tide cycle from around 8 PM to 9 PM. Currently minor flooding benchmarks are forecast to just be reached or exceeded by around a tenth of a foot, and a coastal flood statement is in effect. In addition, tides will be running high in the western Long Island Sound this evening, however, levels are expected to remain below the minor flooding benchmarks. Additional minor coastal flooding will be possible with the high tides Friday evening. Astronomical levels for some back bays are right near the minor coastal flood benchmarks, however tidal surges will be slowly diminishing. There is the potential for additional coastal flooding with Saturday evening`s high tide cycle. The locations with the best chance at this time appear to be across the south shore back bays of Southern Queens and Southern Nassau, with a lower chance across Western Long Island Sound.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO-35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Maloit/19 NEAR TERM...Goodman/Maloit/19 SHORT TERM...19 LONG TERM...Maloit AVIATION...BC/12 MARINE...Goodman/Maloit/19 HYDROLOGY...Maloit/19 TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... EQUIPMENT...

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.